Dear friends, today is January 19th, midday. We continue to monitor the BTC/USDT trend according to our regular analysis rhythm.

Building on the judgment from the past few hours, I maintain a neutral outlook on the overall direction. Although the short-term (hourly) bearish trend is quite fierce, the daily chart structure has not been broken. The entire market has entered a consolidation phase after a sharp decline, waiting for a confirmation of the trend. Currently, there is no breakthrough of key support or resistance levels, nor are there significant divergence signals in the capital flow, so the neutral stance remains valid.

By looking at technical indicators, we can see the battle between bulls and bears. On the daily chart, the ADX is only 17.1 (a typical feature of a ranging market), but the bulls still hold the upper hand (+DI 26.3 significantly exceeds -DI 18.6). More importantly, the CMF reaches 0.154, indicating strong capital inflow, which is the most bullish evidence at the moment. However, on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the situation is entirely different: the 4-hour ADX surges to 47.9, indicating a strong bearish trend (-DI 37.3 far exceeds +DI 13.1), and the OBV continues to flow out, with a decline of -12.3%. The 1-hour chart is even more exaggerated, with the MFI dropping to 19 (extremely oversold), and the ADX soaring to 68.8, showing a powerful bearish momentum. The divergence between the daily bias towards the upside and the short-term strong bearish signals reflects the intense struggle between buyers and sellers. The consistency score of only 47.3% also confirms the market's hesitation.

From the liquidity flow perspective across exchanges, some interesting observations can be made. Although the sell-side proportion exceeds 56.6% overall, the distribution is uneven: major exchanges account for 94% and 93% of the sell orders, respectively, while some compliant platforms and other exchanges have relatively balanced buy and sell orders. This suggests that the selling pressure mainly comes from Asian exchanges, while the willingness to buy on European and American exchanges remains decent. Looking solely at Asian data can be misleading. The true market sentiment is indeed bearish, but not to the point of a one-sided collapse.

The current price is near the middle of the daily Bollinger middle band, in a relatively neutral zone. The strong inflow indicated by the daily CMF and the slight outflow on the OBV create conflicting signals. The market sentiment index is at 44, in the panic zone, which is often a bottoming signal. However, today coincides with an important event date, and the risk level is rated "very high." Coupled with weaker liquidity during the Asian session, uncertainty is greatly amplified.

Regarding trading strategies, considering the tug-of-war between bulls and bears and the high event risk, I recommend mainly observing or taking very small positions for high buy-low-sell-high attempts. If you want to be more aggressive, you could try a small long position around 92,500, with a strict stop-loss below the strong support at 91,200, aiming for the first target at 93,370. However, honestly, the risk-reward ratio is not very attractive, and position size should not exceed 5%.

Key position summary: The current price is in a middle zone across multiple timeframes, with a combined score of 47.3%. Immediate support is around 92,660, and resistance is at 93,370. If the price drops, the first support is at 91,209 (Pivot S1), with stronger support at 89,749. If it breaks upward, the first resistance is at 93,370, followed by the critical level at 94,032. A break below 92,660 likely leads to a test of 91,209, possibly even down to 89,749. However, based on liquidity flow signs, if the buying interest from Europe and America can support the daily bullish structure, there is still a chance for an upward breakout. Currently, the position is neither the worst nor the best, but somewhere in between. The golden rule of trading is simple: wait for the dust to settle before acting.

Markets always move through contradictions, and intense clashes between buy and sell signals often indicate an imminent major reversal. In the face of significant events, preserving capital is more important than chasing profits. Give the market enough time to make decisions.

【Key Positions】
Direction: Wait and see
Support levels: 92663 / 91209 / 89749 USDT
Resistance levels: 93370 / 94032 / 94841 USDT

⚠️ The current trend strength is clearly insufficient (ADX only 17.1, consistency score 47.3%), with serious divergence across multiple timeframes. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for clearer trading signals.

⚠️ Risk reminder: This analysis is based on technical algorithm results and is for reference only. It does not constitute any investment advice. Please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance and invest cautiously.