🚨BREAKING

CFTC CoT (Jan 6-13 data, released Jan 16):
• Ags: Corn/SRW wheat MM short
• Energy: P/M hedge short; MM mix
• NatGas: Very large OI; Swap Dealers long; MM short
• Electricity: Commercials dominate; MM small
• Metals & other: Gold MM strong long; Copper OR short

Grain positioning turned more defensive versus the prior report. In corn, Managed Money deepened net short exposure, driven by a sharp reduction in longs alongside a significant increase in shorts. This confirms that funds pressed bearish positioning rather than stabilizing exposure. SRW wheat remained net short as well, but week-over-week changes were more muted, indicating defensive positioning without acceleration. Across grains, commercial hedging remains large and steady, reinforcing that producers continue to anchor market structure while speculative risk appetite weakens selectively.

Energy markets show persistence, not rotation. Producer/Merchant hedge shorts continue to dominate refined products and crude-linked contracts, confirming ongoing commercial risk management rather than speculative pressure. Managed Money positioning now mixed (long net prior) by contract, with no evidence of broad speculative buildup or crowding. The structure points to position maintenance and carry rather than a shift in conviction or a new directional regime.

Natural gas shows a meaningful structural change. Open interest remains elevated, but positioning has tilted toward dealers rather than funds. Swap Dealers are now net long, while Managed Money has moved net short, signaling that speculative exposure has pulled back while dealer positioning absorbs directional risk. This represents a notable change from the prior report and suggests reduced speculative confidence in upside volatility.

Electricity futures remain firmly commercial-led. Producer/Merchant positions continue to dwarf speculative exposure across major hubs, confirming that pricing remains driven by physical hedging needs. Managed Money participation is present but secondary, reinforcing that funds are not setting the tone in power markets.

In metals, positioning remains structurally stable. Gold continues to carry very large Managed Money net longs, with no sign of liquidation pressure, reinforcing its role as a defensive macro hedge. Copper remains cautious, with Other Reportables net short, indicating that confidence in near-term industrial demand has not materially improved.

Bottom line: compared with the prior report, positioning shows defensive reinforcement rather than rotation. Corn became more bearish at the margin, gas experienced a clear dealer-vs-fund shift, while energy, electricity, and metals structures largely held steady. The dominant signal remains discipline and selectivity, not broad risk re-engagement.