Is the sharp drop in Bitcoin a trap or the beginning of a decline? Early morning, a nearly 4000-point plunge in one hour has many friends tangled: to run, to buy the dip, or to stay put? Let's clarify the core logic first:

1. News: Global risk aversion transmission

Over the weekend, the US-Europe tariff tensions resurfaced, and Trump's statements triggered global market volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold and silver opened sharply higher to new highs, US stock index futures declined, and large funds withdrew from risk assets. Cryptocurrencies, as highly volatile risk assets, were among the first to be sold off. This is a transmission of macro risk aversion, not a purely crypto-specific negative factor.

2. Technical analysis: Bulls' defense line under pressure

Current price is about 92,400, with 95,600 above as a strong resistance (consolidation zone of moving averages), and 96,800 is an even greater pressure; MACD shows a death cross at high levels, diverging downward, indicating weakening short-term momentum. Key support below is at 91,800; if broken, the 90,000 level will come under pressure. The technical outlook has shifted from strong to weak, with 91,800 as the critical line between life and death.

Jing Yi's view:
The probability of a V-shaped reversal is low; the main trend is to seek a bottom through oscillation. Short-term bears dominate, with a high probability of oscillating below 95,600, possibly testing the 91,800 support again. Macro deterioration may also test the 90,000 level.

Trading suggestions:
Bitcoin in the 93,000-93,800 range: short positions, target 92,000-90,200, long-term at 89,000.