2026-01-19 03:25:32

The token unlock wave for July 2026 is coming. XPL will release 2.5 billion tokens, the largest in history—accounting for a quarter of the total supply. At the current cost of $0.05, this batch of tokens hides a potential selling pressure of $125 million. Sounds terrifying, right? The market will indeed be tense.

But don’t rush to conclusions. Large scale does not necessarily mean a crash; this is a common misconception.

What does industry data say? After reviewing 16,000 unlock events, it’s clear: the real trigger for a price crash is the unlocking movements of the team and investors, with an average decline of up to 25%. This unlock for XPL follows the same pattern—the remaining portion allocated to the team plus 25% of the investor tokens, all linearly released at the end. It sounds like a sell-off is imminent.

Even more painful is the timeline. Market panic over unlocks usually begins to spread about a month in advance, and the actual selling pressure tends to last around two weeks after the unlock before gradually easing. In other words, from mid-Q2 2026 to early Q3, XPL will face ongoing emotional selling and volatility spikes. Whether to buy or sell during that period is not just a technical issue; psychological readiness is key.

Unlocking itself is not a bad thing. The key is how investors and the team respond—whether the market can absorb this supply, and whether new buying interest will emerge afterward. These factors truly determine the trend.

XPL-5,81%

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BTCWaveRider

· 4h ago

125 million USD is really enough to break through? Honestly, it's a bit uncertain. This wave of team operations looks like laying mines. It's both linear release and emotional killing, it's uncomfortable. Wait, maybe during that period, I really need to stay away from XPL. What is psychological construction? Basically, it's about seeing who has a stronger mentality. The key is whether new blood is entering the market; if no one takes the bait, it's gg. The figure of 125 million sounds really off-putting. A 25% drop—is that really standard operation? I feel like this time it's even more intense. Honestly, I want to buy the dip, but I'm afraid of catching it halfway up the mountain. By the way, what do the investors think right now? Are they all waiting to dump? The market probably can't digest such a large supply.

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TopBuyerForever

· 5h ago

It's the same old trick again, the team and investors are about to dump. 2.5 billion tokens, directly dumping 125 million dollars worth. How are we retail investors supposed to survive? An average drop of 25%? Then I have to sell everything before July 2026. Psychological preparation? Who can hold on when they see the green candles later? Wait, what's the probability of new buy orders coming in? Sounds so optimistic. This unlocking wave is really going to cause casualties, I have a premonition.

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GweiObserver

· 5h ago

$125 million poured in, this time XPL has to hold up Team and institutional unlocks are the real killers; a 25% drop isn't scary Mental preparation is much more important than watching K-line charts; panic started a month ago The key is whether new buying interest will come in to keep the momentum, otherwise Q2 to Q3 will be really tough Historical data is there; the pattern of 16,000 unlocks can't be escaped this time either

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CommunityJanitor

· 5h ago

1.25 billion USD selling pressure is indeed frightening, but the key still depends on how the team operates. This matter is essentially a psychological game; the ones who truly collapse are always the teams that run away. The timing chosen for XPL is a bit awkward, with Q2 to Q3 being difficult. Brothers, don't just look at the numbers; look at their unlocking performance over the past two years to see the pattern. Actually, that 1.25 billion USD can't be dumped easily; the market isn't that fragile. Why has the unlocking wave become a do-or-die situation? It depends on whether subsequent financing can keep up. Wait, isn't the team’s own portion also going to be cashed out? That’s the real signal. Who will remember this in 2026? By then, there will be new hot topics. I just want to know if big investors have already laid out plans to take over early—that’s the real key to watching the show.

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