Fed Chair Candidate Changes: Waller's probability soars to 60%, market predicts intense volatility

【BlockBeats】Recently, there was an interesting development. Trump’s economic advisor Kevin Hassett recently made a statement, saying that Trump prefers him to stay in his current position at the White House. As soon as this news broke, the market immediately reacted: Hassett has essentially withdrawn from the competition for the Federal Reserve Chairmanship.

Then the prediction markets exploded. Looking at data from the crypto prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, former Fed Governor Kevin Wash became a hot favorite, with the probability soaring to around 60%, completely overshadowing others. Hassett’s chances dropped from a previously evenly matched position to about 15%-16%, and incumbent Governor Christopher Waller is around 13%-14%. This rapid shift is a clear reflection of the market’s real-time response to new information.

Interestingly, although Wash is now the clear front-runner, Trump has a history of changing his mind on personnel matters, with unpredictable style. So, who ultimately takes the position remains uncertain. Currently, besides Wash, the main contenders are Waller and Rick Reider, an executive at BlackRock.

Another variable is the judicial investigation surrounding the renovation project of the Federal Reserve headquarters, which has added a lot of drama to the chair selection process and also rekindled discussions about the Fed’s independence. Treasury Secretary Yellen remains relatively calm, saying the market is generally stable and that the Senate is expected to approve Trump’s final nominee.

The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15. Trump said he would announce his successor within this month, but no specific timetable has been provided yet. This could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as changes in Fed policy direction directly influence liquidity expectations.