2026-01-18 22:20:26

Understand the flow of funds to seize this wave of market opportunities.

Last night before bed, I was scrolling on my phone, and Bitcoin directly broke through $91,000. The entire community went into a frenzy. Various altcoins followed suit and soared, and the chat groups were full of sighs like "Missed the chance again."

But I've seen this scene too many times — every sharp rise is preceded by signals flashing, but most people are blinded by candlestick charts and miss the opportunity.

Having been in the crypto market for so many years, I’ve discovered a pattern: the most profitable opportunities often go to those who can understand the macro logic. Today, I’ll straightforwardly explain what’s really behind this wave of increase.

**Dollar Weakness, Hot Money Has No Place to Go**

When the US Dollar Index fell to its weekly low, seasoned market players started to sense the wind. Recently, US employment data has been weak, and companies are starting to cut jobs. These seemingly negative indicators, paradoxically, are fueling the crypto market.

The reason is simple — when the economy is sluggish, the Federal Reserve has to consider easing monetary policy.

CME data shows that the market once priced in an 84.9% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Once rate cuts are confirmed, borrowing costs decrease, and money that was sitting in banks begins to flow out in search of higher returns. Cryptocurrencies naturally become targets for many funds and retail investors at this time.

Another detail many overlook: the Federal Reserve’s emergency financing tools are being used significantly less. This indicates banks are no longer short of cash, and those floating funds are actively seeking outlets, with crypto assets prominently on the list.

Remember the unlimited QE in 2020? Do you recall the surge back then? The pages of history are turning again.

BTC-2,72%

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potentially_notable

· 5h ago

It's the same old rhetoric, always saying that understanding macro will help you make money, but isn't it just gambling luck in the end? Just parroting what others say, no one has a clear idea of where hot money is flowing. With such a high probability of interest rate cuts, how are some people still trapped? It's not a logical problem, but a human nature issue. History is turning the page, right? What about the 2021 textbook? People who understand capital flows have already jumped on the bandwagon; they won't wait to wake up after reading articles. I hadn't paid attention to the fact that banks are flush with cash before, learned something new. Again, selling anxiety, talking all sorts of nonsense—ultimately, you have to judge for yourself. What does $91,000 mean? The key is that you don't hold a position. This wave of gains is just a show before cutting the leeks; trust me, I'm right. It sounds convincing, but real money-making opportunities have never been in articles, don't you agree?

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GateUser-cff9c776

· 5h ago

From the supply and demand curve perspective, this wave of dollar depreciation is the most perfect support line drawn for BTC; even Buffett would have to say it's good. It's the same old trick of rate cut expectations again, but this time hot money really has nowhere to go. Schrödinger's bull market has just begun. I missed the QE wave in 2020 entirely; if I miss it again this time, I’ll truly become a leek (retail investor) aesthetic. The capital flow is clear, but the problem is most people are still dreaming while watching K-line charts. It sounds right, but in real operations, luck still plays a big role. Don’t be fooled by macro logic.

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TokenomicsTrapper

· 5h ago

actually if you read the fed's vesting schedule... this is just textbook greater fool theory with extra steps lmao

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GasWhisperer

· 5h ago

scanning the mempool rn and ngl, this macro play is textbook. when the fed capitulates, stablecoins start moving like migrating birds... capital's gotta flow somewhere, right?

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RamenStacker

· 5h ago

Uh, it's the same old story of lowering interest rates and flooding liquidity. They said the same last year. I believe in history repeating itself, but this time it's really different, right? I've already jumped on the bandwagon, but looking at these analyses now feels a bit late. No matter how bullish the macro logic is, it can't withstand a black swan event. Understanding capital flow is useless; it's just a gamble of luck. Wait, I really didn't notice the Fed's emergency financing tools. It's that same "I knew it all along" feeling again. Why pretend otherwise? Is it really still possible to chase after 91,000? It feels a bit risky.

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FrogInTheWell

· 5h ago

Back with the same routine? Every time you say that understanding the macro logic will make you money, but in the end, you're still trapped. Tired of the same old rhetoric about cutting leeks, talking so mysteriously—it's better to just say when you got in. Is this really different this time? I feel like it's the same argument as the 99k wave last time. Is it really that simple that crypto rises just because the dollar is weak? Why does Bitcoin sometimes fall even when the dollar is weak? Wake up, there's no such thing as eternal capital flow, only eternal bagholders. Talking about an 84.9% chance of interest rate cuts—probabilities are the most deceptive thing. I just want to know, are you currently holding an empty position or fully invested? It seems like this wave of rise is mostly driven by futures trading; who the real flow of funds is can be seen clearly.

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MevHunter

· 5h ago

Ha, it's that same interest rate cut logic again, always works every time. Wait, where does the 84.9% probability come from? Is this data reliable? I believe in the Federal Reserve's easing measures, but the big players who really make money are already positioning themselves in advance. By the time we see it, it's too late. It's indeed a replay of history, but this time feels different. I'm a bit skeptical about the timing for retail investors to jump in. I understand the capital flow, but the question is how to find that real explosive point among the altcoins. CME data looks good, but Americans aren't that naive either; they've definitely locked in their positions early. This article is well-written, but it feels a bit lacking in risk warnings. Should we prepare for a quick pullback?

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