According to trading activity on Kalshi, market participants are pricing in a significant probability for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Data shows traders are assigning a 72% likelihood that BTC will revisit the $100K level before March 2026. This sentiment reflects broader optimism around Bitcoin's price action and suggests strong conviction among active traders positioning for further upside. The metric provides insight into how the derivatives market is currently pricing medium-term Bitcoin volatility and investor expectations for the world's largest cryptocurrency heading into 2026.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
12 Likes
Reward
12
4
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
PumpBeforeRug
· 01-18 21:49
72%? Sounds good, but has Kalshi's data always been this optimistic...
View OriginalReply0
WhaleWatcher
· 01-18 21:45
A 72% chance to return to 100,000? These traders are really daring to bet, I actually want to see if they'll be proven wrong later.
View OriginalReply0
CantAffordPancake
· 01-18 21:34
There is a 72% probability, so it seems someone is still betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000.
View OriginalReply0
GmGnSleeper
· 01-18 21:27
A 72% probability? Uh... that seems a bit overly optimistic.
According to trading activity on Kalshi, market participants are pricing in a significant probability for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. Data shows traders are assigning a 72% likelihood that BTC will revisit the $100K level before March 2026. This sentiment reflects broader optimism around Bitcoin's price action and suggests strong conviction among active traders positioning for further upside. The metric provides insight into how the derivatives market is currently pricing medium-term Bitcoin volatility and investor expectations for the world's largest cryptocurrency heading into 2026.