Recently, I tracked an interesting phenomenon—the market's expectations whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in January—oscillating repeatedly.

Looking back at this month's trend reveals the clues. From early January to the 12th, the market was particularly optimistic, with the probability of reaching $100,000 soaring to 70%. However, on the 13th, sentiment sharply reversed, and the probability plummeted to 27%. Then, on the 14th, a large-scale short squeeze suddenly occurred, causing the market to rebound strongly.

By the 15th, the optimistic sentiment after the rebound was fully ignited, with the probability jumping directly to 54%. It felt like we were about to break $100,000.

But the turning point came quickly. By the 18th, the latest data showed the probability had dropped back to 43%. Meanwhile, the probability of Bitcoin staying below $85,000 remained stable at around 15%. In short, after a short-term rebound, the market returned to a state of watchfulness and divergence.

This actually reflects a key issue: **Although that violent rebound was fierce, the market felt it was not enough to push the price through the $100,000 threshold**. Both bulls and bears re-entered a tug-of-war at this level.

What's more interesting is that this change in probability perfectly aligns with other market signals. On January 17th, the funding rate turned negative across the board (a typical bearish signal), which justifies why optimism dropped from 54% to 43%. The market isn't fluctuating randomly; it's expressing real capital commitments—sentiment cooled down from feverish highs.

From a data perspective, the 43% probability itself indicates the current situation: **This is a typical divergence phase**. There is no absolute consensus; both bulls and bears have supporting logic, but neither is strong enough to decisively tip the scales. The market is waiting for the next clear signal.