2026-01-18 01:20:35

BTC, ETH, XRP today's trend overview.

Bitcoin is currently stuck at the sensitive level of 95500-95800. The short-term bearish logic is actually quite clear. Consider lightly shorting within this range, with the first target at 94000 and a stop-loss above 97500. Enter 5%-8% positions in batches, don't go all in at once.

What does the technical analysis say? The 4-hour MACD has already formed a death cross and is still heading downward. More painfully, the price has been repeatedly testing the 96000-97000 range in the past two days, but can't hold above it, indicating a potential top. If it breaks below 95000 today, it will likely accelerate downward, targeting the support zone around 94400-94000.

But be cautious of the risks. If BTC suddenly surges with high volume and stabilizes above 96500, short positions should be closed immediately, as there is a short-term possibility of a direct rally to 98000 or even 100000. Currently, the volatility is suppressed at 1.01%, which is somewhat eerie, and could change suddenly, so stay alert.

In summary: strictly follow stop-profit and stop-loss rules, and never hold onto losing positions.

BTC-0,1%

ETH0,57%

XRP-0,77%

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MEVHunter

· 7h ago

The position between 95500-95800 is indeed strange. The large orders in the mempool don't match the on-chain data, feels like someone is playing sandwich attacks. --- MACD death cross? That's just the beginning. What really matters are the gas fee curve and mining pool flows. Arbitrage space is the key. --- Don't just focus on candlesticks. The arbitrage opportunities with flash loans are where the real profits are. Volatility at 1.01% makes it easiest to exploit. --- Investing in batches at 5%-8%? I think you're aiming for stability. Gamblers would have already gone all-in, haha. --- Accelerating after breaking below 95000? Not necessarily. The key is the activity in the exchange's hot wallet—that's the real signal. --- If you can't hold above 96000-97000, didn't you see the MEV ordering? Robots are sandwiching, and with such a big spread, not arbitraging would be ridiculous. --- Good risk control talk, but I'm worried that once the mentality collapses, you'll start thinking about reverse operations. That's the real danger. --- The volatility is weird as hell. Is a gas war breaking out? Only the relationship between mining pools can explain the current market situation.

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Layer3Dreamer

· 15h ago

theoretically speaking, if we consider the recursive nature of this price action between 95500-95800... the MACD death cross you mentioned is basically a state verification failure across the temporal dimension, ngl that's where the breakdown vectors really start to matter

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SpeakWithHatOn

· 15h ago

95500-95800 is the key range where the tug-of-war continues. The death cross on the MACD is really giving a signal. It seems like there is a slight chance for a short position, but I'm worried about a sudden surge with high volume breaking through 96500, then I would have to run.

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SelfSovereignSteve

· 15h ago

95500 this threshold really feels a bit uncomfortable, the MACD death cross signal is too obvious, but I still chickened out and didn't dare to short.

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CryptoSourGrape

· 15h ago

If I had seen this analysis earlier, I would have avoided getting trapped here at 95,800.

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