2026-01-17 16:36:52

The prediction market will also plunge. The odds and prices for the "US-Iran conflict" event have been smashed by about 70-80%.

To put it simply, it's one reason—American political figures' attitudes have changed again. The tone has softened, and market participants instantly panic and sell off, moving their chips out.

But this actually provides an opportunity for observation. Looking at this point in late January, it's quite interesting.

It's not about necessarily guessing that an event will happen. It's just that market participants all understand one thing: policy signals change rapidly, but the underlying logic remains unchanged. The current prices already fully reflect the market's pessimistic expectations. For traders willing to endure volatility, this is actually a position worth observing.

This is how prediction markets work—behind price fluctuations, they actually reflect the ups and downs of collective psychology.

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GasFeeSobber

· 5h ago

Whenever politicians open their mouths, our chips have to dance along This wave is indeed a stampede feast, but there's no need to panic Group psychology... at its core, it's just collective throwing a tantrum

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GateUser-beba108d

· 6h ago

Politicians changing faces faster than the crypto prices plummeting haha When chips are being stomped on, it's actually a signal to get in. I've seen this so many times Odds of US-Iran conflict dropping by 70-80%? It feels like just cleaning out retail investors In such times, it's actually about who is taking the other side. Real money never shows its hand Group panic is the most genuine, and the prices hit the hardest Predicting the market is just gambling on human nature. The underlying logic hasn't changed at all At this point at the end of January, it feels like the calm before the storm Policy signals changing faces, I'm used to it. Just look at who has more chips Prices have already dropped enough. Now let's see who dares to buy the dip

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NotSatoshi

· 6h ago

Politicians changing faces once causes the market to crash, it's too outrageous When the Americans' attitude shifts, the market all runs away, it's hilarious This is why I don't trust prediction markets, it's all political games Has the underlying logic not changed? Then why have the odds dropped by 70-80%, it's contradictory Anyone still willing to buy into this pit at the end of January is truly a brave warrior Group psychology is inherently irrational; whoever can make money is whoever has good psychological resilience Those entering now are betting on how politicians will change faces next time The fact that prices are being hammered down so hard actually indicates that the risk hasn't passed; continue to observe Prediction markets, in essence, are betting on policies, not on reality

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AirdropNinja

· 6h ago

It's another politician doing a flip, and the market has to take the hit --- This wave really can't hold, the odds are taking a tumble --- Wait, if the policy signals change, the underlying logic hasn't changed? I need to think about this logic --- Predictive markets are really just gambling on human nature --- Seventy to eighty percent of the drop is coming, the bottom-fishing heroes should be unable to hold back --- The moment of collective stampede is the most genuine, revealing who truly dares to take the plunge --- The price has already fully reflected pessimistic expectations, so that’s a bottom signal --- Changing faces every day and still expecting us to believe in some underlying logic, hilarious

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Anon32942

· 6h ago

American politicians just love to flip-flop, causing the market to jump around. Policy signals change faces; when has the underlying logic ever changed? Haha. This wave of sell-offs actually provides a good position for spectators. Group psychology, this thing, is the biggest driver of prices. The end of January is indeed an interesting point; continue to observe.

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