At the start of 2026, a leading DEX announced its launch on a major mainstream exchange's L2 chain. On the surface, this news seems perfect—a top-tier protocol connecting with over 50 million ecosystem users, and the two parties appear to be coming together. However, interestingly, the token price did not surge in response; instead, it repeatedly oscillated in a weak trend. This phenomenon of "good news leading to negative price movement" has actually become a common cliché in the crypto market.

From the perspective of someone who has been monitoring the DEX sector for nearly a decade, the fundamental reason for this poor price performance actually lies in three core contradictions. The first overlooked misconception is: the user base size never equals actual liquidity, let alone token value appreciation.

On the surface, 50 million sounds huge, but the composition of these users determines everything. The vast majority are regular traders from centralized exchanges, accustomed to one-click orders and second-level transaction speeds. Expecting them to manually configure wallets, add custom RPCs, bridge assets across chains, and then interact on a DEX involves a complexity jump that can deter 80% of them. More critically, the behavioral logic and needs of these two user groups are completely different. The numbers game of user base size often masks the harsh reality of actual conversion rates.

The market is often misled by such "big news," but the real reaction of the token price precisely reflects participants' clear awareness of the difficulty in these conversions.