2026-01-16 12:40:48

Recently, I looked at the annual summary and future outlook of a leading exchange, which made me think of a question: the real risk in 2026 may not be about misjudging the direction, but about still using old-fashioned bull/bear market strategies to interpret the current market conditions.

Why do I say that? A few key data points make it clear—traditional cycle templates may have already become invalid. The complexity of the market is increasing, and the binary view of "bullish or bearish" simply cannot contain the current trend characteristics. Institutional layouts, policy environment, technological iterations, macroeconomic background... these variables are intertwined and have long exceeded the explanatory power of classic cycle theories.

In other words, if you are still using the experience templates from the past five years to predict next year, you are likely to stumble. The key is not your sense of direction, but your speed in adapting to the new market logic.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 14h ago

Honestly, it's time to wake up from relying on the same old tricks from five years ago. --- The cycle theory should have been discarded long ago; what we're playing now isn't even the same game. --- How institutions move, and which way policy winds are blowing—that's the key to survival, not guessing ups and downs. --- Bullish or bearish? That's too naive. Now you need to understand the whole chessboard. --- I can't understand why so many people still use old templates; the market has already changed. --- The real opponents are those who think quickly and iterate fast, not the market itself. --- Those with strong adaptability will make a fortune by 2026; those holding onto old diaries will lose. --- That's why I don't believe in cycle predictions—it's all nonsense. --- The key phrase is two words: speed up. Either keep up quickly or be eliminated. --- It sounds a bit vague, but it makes sense—old experience can't handle this version anymore.

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ForkItAllDay

· 14h ago

Honestly, those still clinging to the four-year cycle need to wake up. After so many years of analyzing charts, I've realized that the old tricks no longer work. Institutional strategies have changed, and the rules have shifted accordingly. We're still guessing based on experience, and that's bound to lead to losses. Adapting quickly is the real key, and that point was perfectly said. No one should boast about seeing through this round of market行情.

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BearMarketMonk

· 14h ago

Bro, you hit the nail on the head. I suffered this loss last year. That's right, those still relying on the old textbooks should wake up. This time it's different. Just looking at K-line charts is no longer enough. The cycle theory is basically dead in this round; we need to relearn. Those who don't understand the new logic will definitely cut losses next year. It's interesting; finally, I see someone daring to say this. I thought only I felt that the old routines were no longer effective. Really, adapting to the market is much harder than guessing the right direction. This is probably the difference between winners and rookies.

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rekt_but_vibing

· 14h ago

Honestly, the old routines should really be discarded, but I still see a bunch of people using them around me. Watching long and short signals every day has made everyone's minds stiff. This wave of market movement is full of uncertainties; who can master it? The old templates from the past should have been retired long ago.

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PositionPhobia

· 14h ago

Honestly, those still clinging to the cycle theory should have reflected on it long ago. The old routines indeed no longer work, but I really don't believe everyone can quickly iterate their thinking. Institutions are still in trial and error, so why should we think we've seen through it all? This wave is indeed full of uncertainties; simply being bullish or bearish is meaningless. The key is whether we can adjust quickly; otherwise, we're really going to suffer losses. It's interesting to question whether the cycle has collapsed, but what is the new logic? It feels like everyone is walking in the dark, no one has particularly confident insights. Being flexible and adaptable is more important than making predictions accurately, I agree with that.

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TooScaredToSell

· 15h ago

You're right, people still clinging to that old calendar are probably going to get caught off guard. The bull and bear cycle theory should have been thrown into the trash long ago; now there are too many variables to fit into that model. Really, many people are just too lazy to understand new things and still want to rely on old methods. Last year’s confident predictions, and look at the result—face-slapping all around. The key is to quickly learn new rules; if you can't keep up, you won't be able to compete in this market. This is probably the beginning of involution; everyone is upgrading their thinking, and if you're still stuck in the 2020 mindset, With exponential complexity, binary thinking is no longer sufficient, indeed. Those who can't adapt to the new logic will likely be the biggest targets for the next round of scything.

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