## Bitcoin in the New Reality: Is a Bear Market Unavoidable or Is the Bull Run Still Ongoing?

The cryptocurrency market is changing faster than analysts' forecasts. Discussions about whether we are heading into a bear market or a bull run remain heated, but according to sector experts, the reality is more complex than simple dichotomies.

### Bitcoin Halving Will Lose Its Significance for Market Dynamics

For years, the reduction of new Bitcoin supply due to halving has been a key catalyst for price movements. However, this rule no longer works as strongly. In the early stages of development, when the cryptocurrency ecosystem operated in relative isolation, the four-year halving cycle directly influenced price dynamics. Today, with limited new supply entering the market, halving itself is no longer sufficient to drive significant movements. This change reflects the market's maturation and increasing complexity.

### Integration with the Global Stock Market and Economy

Bitcoin and the broader class of cryptocurrency assets no longer operate as an autonomous system. They are increasingly linked to the US stock market and the overall macroeconomic situation. This correlation means that decisions by the Federal Reserve, inflation, economic growth, and global geopolitical tensions now play an equally important role as sector-specific internal factors.

### Market History: From DeFi through Bear Years to Potential Growth

The year 2020 brought a turnaround—not only due to halving but also due to sector-specific dynamics. The DeFi boom in the summer of that year demonstrated how innovation can drive interest. However, 2022 marked a clear cooling-off. As the global economy began to shrink after the pandemic, the cryptocurrency market experienced a cold period. The years 2022-2023 were relatively difficult for the sector.

The turnaround came at the end of 2023, driven by ETF approvals and expectations of economic recovery. The combination of these factors reignited risk appetite.

### Will the Bear Market Be Dramatic or Mild?

Many indicators suggest that the dramatic declines seen in previous cycles may not repeat in the near future. Even in the case of a significant correction—for example, from the range of $100,000-$120,000 down to $80,000-$90,000—we would still remain relatively high. This observation suggests that bull and bear markets will be more processual than revolutionary.

Reports in November about decreased trading volumes gained media attention, but market data indicate a more moderate picture. The decline that occurred was limited, suggesting some stability in market participant behavior.

### Main Risk: The AI Bubble

Looking ahead, one risk deserves particular attention. This year, we are witnessing a massive influx of capital into data centers and computing infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence. The question "Is this a bubble?" is becoming increasingly relevant, especially considering the uncertainty regarding the profitability of some large infrastructure projects.

Although companies focused on providing AI technology—such as chip suppliers—show solid results, the actual profitability of infrastructure investments may be less certain. If concerns about overvaluation in the AI sector grow, this could have significant consequences for the entire class of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.