According to the latest reports released by several mainstream institutions from late 2025 to early 2026, the analytical framework and core narratives of the cryptocurrency market are undergoing profound changes. For 2026, the market consensus is: the impact of the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is weakening, and the market will be driven more by institutional funds, macroeconomic environment, and structural demand.

To give you a clear understanding of the current predictions from major institutions, I have summarized the main viewpoints as follows:

📊 Overview of Mainstream Institutions' Core Predictions for 2026

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Institution/Source: ChainCatcher (comprehensive of Messari, a16z, etc.)
· 2026 Price Forecast: Expected to break through $250,000.
· Core Viewpoint: Shift in bull market cycle logic, the four-year cycle may become invalid, with institutional allocation becoming the new driver.

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Institution/Source: Bernstein
· 2026 Price Forecast: Target $150,000.
· Core Viewpoint: Optimistic about the “Tokenization Supercycle,” with a peak possibly reaching $200,000 in 2027.

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Institution/Source: Standard Chartered Bank
· 2026 Price Forecast: Target $150,000 (down from $300,000).
· Core Viewpoint: Price-driving factors have shifted from “halving” to spot ETF capital flows.

Bitcoin (BTC)

· Institution/Source: Fidelity Macro Research
· 2026 Price Forecast: Believes $65,000–$75,000 is an important support zone.
· Core Viewpoint: The current four-year cycle may have peaked; 2026 could be a “rest year.”

Ethereum (ETH)

· Institution/Source: Standard Chartered Bank
· 2026 Price Forecast: Year-end target of $7,500.
· Core Viewpoint: Long-term optimism about its role as a financial settlement layer and tokenization platform.

Ethereum (ETH)

· Institution/Source: Fundstrat (Tom Lee)
· 2026 Price Forecast: Early-year target of $7,000–$9,000.
· Core Viewpoint: Asset tokenization on Wall Street will become a core driving force.

Ethereum (ETH)

· Institution/Source: ChainCatcher (comprehensive institutional reports)
· 2026 Price Forecast: Expected to challenge the $8,000–$10,000 range.
· Core Viewpoint: Valuation re-assessment will be based on cash flow and utility, such as DeFi and Liquid Staking.

📈 Main Market Drivers and Potential Risks

Core Drivers:

1. Institutionalization and Compliance: Capital from traditional giants like BlackRock continues to flow through compliant channels (such as spot ETFs, CeDeFi), supporting the bull market.
2. Rise of “Utility Narratives”: Market focus shifts from speculation to actual utility, such as Ethereum’s DeFi settlement, stablecoin payments (especially AI Agent-driven M2M payments), and RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization.
3. Structural Changes:
· Bitcoin: Ongoing capital inflows into spot ETFs may have replaced halving as the main pricing factor.
· Ethereum: Its value will be more re-evaluated as “financial infrastructure” generating cash flow.
· Market Segmentation: Funds will be highly concentrated in leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, while many less practical altcoins may be phased out.

Key Risks and Challenges:

1. Macro Uncertainty: Global monetary policies and recession risks will continue to influence market liquidity.
2. Regulatory Implementation: How regulations in major markets like the US are enforced will impact institutional deployment speed.
3. Technical Corrections: Fidelity and other institutions suggest that if the current cycle has peaked, the market may enter a prolonged correction period, with Bitcoin testing support at $65,000–$75,000.
4. Market Volatility: Excessive leverage and black swan events (such as the market crash in October 2025) could trigger intense fluctuations.

💎 Summary and Outlook

Overall, the crypto market in 2026 is at a turning point from “speculation-driven” to “utility and cash flow-driven.” Institutional funds are the foundation, and new narratives like AI payments and RWA tokenization will create structural demand. For investors, understanding these underlying logical shifts is more important than simply guessing price movements.

I hope this analysis based on the latest institutional viewpoints helps you better grasp the market trends. If you want to explore specific trends such as “RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization” or “AI integration with cryptocurrencies,” I can provide more detailed insights. #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #BTC#ETH