Will Satoshi Nakamoto's million BTC really be targeted by quantum hackers? Here's what the community thinks

Have you ever wondered whether the 1 million Bitcoins held by Satoshi Nakamoto, sleeping on the blockchain, might someday be swept away by a quantum computer? Recently, this topic has exploded in the Bitcoin community, with debates focusing not on “whether it can happen,” but on “how truly terrifying it might be.”

The Real Picture of Quantum Threats: Which Bitcoins Are Most Likely to Be Targeted

On-chain data shows that approximately 4 million BTC are stored in old-style pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses. These addresses have a critical vulnerability — public keys are fully exposed on the blockchain. This means that once a quantum computer gains the ability to crack them, it could theoretically derive the private key directly from the public key, like opening a vault with a key.

Satoshi’s holdings are on this “vulnerable list.” According to Arkham Intelligence’s analysis, this mysterious founder’s coins are stored in address types that are susceptible to being broken by Shor’s algorithm — a quantum algorithm. If you look at the number — 1 million BTC, valued at current prices of $95.59K per BTC, with a market cap approaching $1.9 trillion — it’s indeed enough to be frightening.

But here’s a key turning point: Not all Bitcoins are equally at risk.

Why Most Bitcoins Are Actually Still Relatively Safe

Prominent analyst Willy Woo pointed out in community discussions that, although P2PK addresses do pose a risk, modern Bitcoin addresses have long since evolved. SegWit, Taproot, and other new script types use “public key hashes” — encrypting the public key before storing it on-chain. This acts like an extra layer of security, making it more difficult for quantum computers, even if powerful, to crack.

Data supports this: Over 80% of the current Bitcoin supply has already migrated to secure, post-P2PK formats. In other words, only a minority of coins are truly vulnerable to quantum attacks.

Should We Really Be Worried? Is Quantum Cracking Imminent?

This is the most pressing question: how much time do we have to respond to this threat?

Assessments from institutions like NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) in the US give a relatively relaxed answer — it will take another 20-40 years before quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin’s encryption are even feasible. Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, emphasizes that this time window is sufficient for the Bitcoin ecosystem to adopt post-quantum cryptography standards, eliminating this risk altogether.

From another perspective, Bitcoin isn’t static. From the SegWit upgrade in 2017 to Taproot in 2021, the protocol has demonstrated its adaptability. Future integration of quantum-resistant algorithms via soft or hard forks is technically feasible.

Community Brainstorm: What if Satoshi’s Coins Were Really Hacked?

Content creator Josh Otten once posted a hypothetical chart depicting an extreme scenario — if Satoshi’s 1 million BTC were attacked by quantum hackers and dumped en masse, the Bitcoin price could plummet to $3. It sounds like science fiction, but it sparked deep community discussion.

Market analyst James Check’s realistic view: even if such an event occurred, it wouldn’t be a permanent disaster. First, experienced investors would see the sharp decline as a prime buying opportunity; second, since most Bitcoins have already moved to secure addresses, the network’s stability wouldn’t collapse. The real question is — can we reach community consensus on “freezing” attacked coins? The answer is clearly no, and that’s the cost of decentralization.

Woo counters this extreme scenario by asserting that markets will self-correct, and increased security awareness will naturally drive users to migrate, without waiting for disaster.

What Should Users Do Now: Don’t Wait, Act Now

The most practical advice for holders is one word: “Migrate.”

Transfer funds from old P2PK addresses to modern, quantum-resistant addresses, such as SegWit or Taproot formats. It’s not complicated — most mainstream wallets, including hardware wallets, already support these. If your coins are still in addresses from years ago, now is the time to tidy up.

Meanwhile, the community is actively pushing for Bitcoin protocol upgrades, with the next step being the integration of NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms. This means future protections will be even stronger — like putting a bulletproof vest on Bitcoin.

Key Data Snapshot

• Risk Concentration: About 4 million BTC in P2PK old addresses, a minority of total supply
• Security Adoption: Over 80% of Bitcoin now uses modern, quantum-resistant address formats
• Time Window: Experts agree there are still 20-40 years to adapt technologically
• Current BTC Price: $95.59K, circulating supply 19.976 million coins
• Community Attitude: Threat exists but is manageable; upgrade solutions are already feasible

Final Words

The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is not fictional, but it’s also far from an “apocalypse.” It’s more like a long-term technological race — Bitcoin has time, standards, and community support to respond. Satoshi’s 1 million BTC, while vulnerable, has an extremely low probability of being “eaten” in reality.

Bitcoin’s greatest strength isn’t how perfect it is today, but its ability to evolve. As demonstrated by the Taproot upgrade, Bitcoin is becoming stronger and more flexible. When the quantum era arrives, it will be ready.

The key point: don’t just sit and wait. If your coins are still in old addresses, now is the time to act.