2026-01-15 06:30:55

The prediction market track has long-term potential to become a major arena, but honestly, it's still too early.

Looking at the entire ecosystem, there are very few projects that can produce a performance report proving that "the market truly exists," and most are concentrated among the top players. This is the core issue.

What’s even more disheartening is the desertification of market makers—there is a severe lack of qualified market makers. This directly stifles liquidity, which is the lifeblood of the market. Without market makers willing to enter, trading depth cannot improve, user experience suffers, and in turn, more people are scared away, creating a vicious cycle.

So, when it comes to prediction markets now, rather than saying the track is mature, it’s more accurate to say that the ecosystem is still in the exploration stage. Projects that haven't been validated yet have significant potential, but they also carry high risks. The true test has yet to begin.

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pvt_key_collector

· 4h ago

Market maker desertification hits the point that liquidity kills everything, making all efforts futile. --- Basically, it's the chicken-and-egg problem: who gets on board first? --- Head monopoly + liquidity shortage, isn't this the fatal flaw of prediction markets... Only when the true test comes will we see who survives. --- Currently, prediction markets are just experimental fields, with large space and high risks. Let's see how projects break through. --- All market makers have left, who can be blamed... User experience has become extremely poor. --- Wait, doesn't this mean prediction markets haven't really taken off? Are those entering now just gamblers? --- Liquidity is the key; everything else is superficial. --- I just want to know who dares to be the first market maker—that's the watershed.

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AirdropHunter420

· 7h ago

The point about market maker desertification hits hard. If no one is willing to come in, liquidity will die, no wonder the experience is so bad. Prediction markets are still too early; only a few top players have some influence, and other projects are just air. How to break this vicious cycle? Relying solely on hype definitely won't work. Wait until the right opportunity really comes, and then decide. Right now, entering feels like a gambler's mindset. There are more scam opportunities; just watch and let the top players fight it out themselves.

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GasFeeVictim

· 7h ago

Market maker desertification is such a painful topic. Entering now just means providing liquidity to the top players. The closed loop of the liquidity death spiral is indeed hard to break. Who's willing to be the first to take the plunge? Speaking of prediction markets, how many are truly in use? It seems most are just hype concepts. Honestly, at this stage, we're just waiting for market education, but educating users is too costly. The top monopolies are supported by data; the rest are just gambling on tomorrow. But from another perspective, the current "death spiral" might actually be the embryo of future big tracks. The scarcity of market makers isn't an urgent issue; someone has to step in to take over. It still feels like prediction markets need a real demand explosion; right now, they're a bit too trivial.

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GmGmNoGn

· 7h ago

Basically, it's just that liquidity has dried up. Market makers have all left; who's left to play? Wait, have the top few really been making money? It seems like everyone is just burning cash. It's still too early for prediction markets; those entering now are just the bagholders. The term "market maker desertification" is spot on—piercing and accurate. The ecosystem is still in the crawling stage; stop hyping it up.

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SerumDegen

· 7h ago

liquidity desert hitting different ngl... watched this cascade effect play out too many times already. mm abandonment = death spiral, classic market structure collapse. predicting market still feels like watching a liquidation waterfall in slow mo tbh.

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