The Federal Reserve power play unfolds, how should the market bet?

The plot has taken an unexpected turn. The previously anticipated rate cut seems far off, but market data tells a different story — expectations for the Fed Chair's reappointment are quietly changing. Data shows the probability of departure in May has dropped from 74% to 45%, and many institutions are now betting he will stay until 2028.

Even more interesting, the popularity of the originally favored successor candidate is beginning to decline, while support for hawkish opponents is rising. What game is the market playing? Analysts point out that the situation has completely reversed, and developments are diverging from the initial script.

The logic behind this is worth pondering. The Department of Justice investigation not only failed to oust the current Chair but may allow him to continue steering as a board member, safeguarding the Fed's independence. Some observers believe that the original "informal agreement" between the two sides may have already broken down, and the current Chair might even secretly influence policy from behind the scenes as a board member.

Trying to pressure the Fed into changing its course? That might be a futile effort. The true winners are often those who stay silent and survive. Crypto market participants should consider: what does the uncertainty in Fed policy mean for assets like $ETH, $ICP, $ZEC?

Policy direction still needs to wait, and the market rhythm is already adjusting.