Why Ripple's EU License Didn't Save XRP: The Battle Between Policy Favorability and Technical Pressure

Ripple has received preliminary authorization for a Luxembourg Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license, marking a significant breakthrough in its regulatory progress in Europe. However, in the face of this positive news, XRP’s performance remains subdued—down 2.3% on the day, falling from $2.17 to $2.12. This phenomenon of “positive news not leading to a rise” reflects the complex dynamics currently at play in the crypto market.

Why Policy Good News Hasn’t Boosted Prices

Ripple’s Regulatory Progress

According to the latest reports, Ripple has obtained preliminary authorization for an EMI license in Luxembourg, meaning it can, in the future, provide compliant payment services involving stablecoins and other digital assets within the EU under a unified regulatory framework. Meanwhile, Ripple is also applying for a Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license under the MiCA framework to fully adapt to the latest EU digital asset regulations.

This development is indeed significant. Ripple has now obtained over 75 licenses worldwide, including a recent license in the UK. These licenses provide a compliant foundation for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and cross-border payment services, and create conditions for XRP to serve as a liquidity bridge.

Market Sentiment in Perspective

Despite this positive news, XRP remains under pressure. According to quick news data, this is mainly due to two factors:

• The overall weakness of Bitcoin dragging down market sentiment
• Short-term buying interest significantly weakening below key resistance levels
• The market being more driven by macroeconomic factors rather than single positive news

This reflects a reality: the release of policy good news takes time to impact the market, which needs to digest macro-level pressures first.

Technical Outlook: Consolidation at Highs or Trend Reversal?

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Technical Structure Analysis

Data from quick news indicates that XRP is currently in a “high-level consolidation” rather than a “trend reversal” pattern:

• Intraday volatility has narrowed to about $0.07, indicating a market in stalemate
• A brief rebound occurred during US trading hours, but no sustained breakout
• Price oscillates repeatedly between $2.13 and $2.15
• The current correction still holds Fibonacci support near $2.02 and short-term moving averages

This structure suggests the market is digesting gains initiated from around $1.80, which is normal profit-taking. The key is whether an effective breakout can be achieved at the resistance levels.

Fundamentals Still Show Resilience

Institutional Funds Continue to Flow In

Despite price pressure, data from institutional levels shows some support:

• Over the past 24 hours, spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $4.9 million in net inflows
• Total inflows have approached $1.37 billion
• This indicates that institutional investors remain confident in XRP’s medium-term prospects

Positive Signals from Supply Side

Changes in exchange inventories are often viewed as important supply indicators:

• XRP supply on exchanges continues to decline, now below 2 billion tokens
• This is significantly lower than the over 4 billion tokens at the end of 2025
• Historical experience suggests that decreasing exchange inventories are signals of medium-term tightening supply
• When exchange inventories decrease, market liquidity tightens, supporting prices

Long-term Application Scenario Expansion

According to relevant news, analysts are focusing on:

• Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin growing in use as collateral for BlackRock’s tokenized funds
• XRP increasingly viewed as a foundational liquidity and settlement channel in the potential reset of the global financial system
• Progress of the CLARITY Act and approvals from trust banks as catalysts that could unlock institutional demand

Three Future Scenarios

Based on technical analysis frameworks from quick news:

Constructive Scenario: As long as XRP stays above $2.00–$2.02, the consolidation remains constructive. An effective breakout above $2.22 could lead to a retest of the $2.40 zone. Analysts are even optimistic about target prices around $5, with some institutions predicting XRP could rise to $8.

Risk Scenario: If it falls below $2.00, caution is warranted for a correction extending to $1.90 or even $1.80. This would break the current high-level consolidation pattern and shift into a downtrend.

Key Observation: In the short term, the tug-of-war between regulatory good news and technical resistance will continue to dominate XRP’s range-bound movement. The technical levels around $2.22 to $2.39 are critical to confirm the sustainability of this upward trend.

Summary

Ripple’s acquisition of an EU license is indeed a major positive, but market reactions to policy news are often delayed. XRP’s current performance reflects a reality: breakthroughs in policy need to be confirmed through technical and capital flow signals before translating into tangible price increases.

Currently, XRP is in a high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal, with fundamental resilience (ETF inflows, declining inventories, expanding use cases), but technical confirmation requires a breakout at key levels. In the short term, $2.22 is a critical resistance, and $2.00 a key support. Holding these levels keeps the medium-term outlook promising; a decisive break below support would necessitate reassessment. The market’s battle continues, and the answer will be revealed by upcoming technical developments.