#美联储政策与会议 Seeing this set of Federal Reserve data, my mind flashes back to the 2015 market rally. Back then, the market was also speculating repeatedly on policy directions, with similar probability figures changing daily. The 85.1% chance of holding seems clear, but the underlying expectations and betting are actually turbulent.

This time, the contradiction between the data points is quite interesting—CME's probability of a rate cut in January rose from 15.5% to 18.3%, indicating that the market was reassessing before the release of the meeting minutes. History has shown me that whenever such subtle expectation reversals occur, it often means that the market's understanding of policy is still inconsistent.

I've experienced too many instances where "policy certainty" ended up being a face slap—2013's balance sheet reduction expectations, 2018's shift to rate hikes, 2020's unlimited QE—each time, the market thought the direction was clear, but the result? Policies are always more complex than expected. Now, the 85.1% looks very stable, but only in March was the probability of holding at 45.2%. How much room for change is there in these two months?

What truly matters is not this January move, but how much space remains in this policy cycle. The crypto market and traditional markets always move at different paces on this issue—I’ve fallen into this trap before. If the Fed really starts cutting rates, the timing will be later than the market expects, giving us a window to reassess the current project quality and risk pricing.