This morning ETH surged by 200 points! The Federal Reserve's late-night hints + Bitcoin pushing towards 100,000, can it hold at 3200 and directly reach 3500? Is now the time for retail investors to jump in—profit or trap?

Early morning 3 a.m. watching the market made me crazy, oversleeping and missing out—"ETH jumped straight from 3050 to 3312 this morning, a 200-point surge in 2 hours. Someone posted a 50% unrealized profit screenshot, and others in the community are asking 'Is it still okay to chase now?'” But the master warns: this wave of rapid increase isn’t “a pie falling from the sky,” it’s a “confluence of news + technical signals,” and stepping in at the wrong moment is “standing on the mountain top.”

1. News Perspective: Today’s surge is driven by “three wind currents”
Federal Reserve’s “rate cut warm breeze”: This morning, Fed official Barkin hinted that “the probability of a rate cut in March exceeds 70%,” causing the US dollar index to drop 0.3%—the crypto market is highly sensitive to “liquidity,” which is like giving ETH a “shot of confidence” (last year, when rate cut expectations materialized, ETH rose 15% in 3 days).
Bitcoin’s “big brother effect”: BTC hit the 98,000 mark this morning, just a step away from 100,000, with spot ETF net inflows exceeding $2 billion in a single day—As the “second in command,” ETH has traditionally been the “leading follower” in Bitcoin’s rally, this wave is a case of “big brother eating meat, little brother drinking soup.”
On-chain “hidden signals”: Early this morning, large ETH transfers on the blockchain suddenly surged, with a whale withdrawing 12,000 ETH from an exchange (about $39 million)—a typical “main force accumulation” move. After this operation in November last year, ETH increased by 800 points.
Master’s summary: Today’s rise isn’t “retail speculation,” it’s a “resonance” of institutions + news + on-chain activity, and short-term sentiment remains strong.
2. Technical Perspective: 3200 is the “life and death line,” 3400 is the “fatty position”
Support level: 3200 is the “floor”: Looking at the 4-hour chart, 3200 was the “jumping-off point” for yesterday’s rebound, with 21,000 ETH buy orders at this level (about $67 million)—as long as it doesn’t fall below 3200, there’s no “deep drop risk” in the short term.
Resistance level: 3280 is the “threshold”: The price was rejected three times at 3280 during previous rebounds. Currently, it’s stuck at 3312, which is a “just-crossed threshold”—but RSI has reached 61, and KDJ’s J value is close to 70, indicating a short-term “overbought” condition, possibly leading to a pullback testing 3280.
Volume signals: The red bars are still “expanding”: MACD red bars lengthened from 29.51 to 35.2, with trading volume surpassing $25 billion—this isn’t “a rebound on low volume,” but genuine money entering the market. The pullback is a “buying opportunity.”
Master’s summary: The technical setup is a “strong bullish pattern,” but don’t chase the top; waiting for a pullback to 3280 before re-entering is safer.
3. Personal opinion: This rebound is a “buying window,” not the “start of a bull market”
Many retail investors ask, “Is the bull market here?” The master clearly states: this is a “rebound rally,” not the “initiation of a bull market.” There are two reasons: first, US stocks may pull back tonight (Nasdaq futures are already down 0.8%), and Bitcoin could “trigger a market crash”; second, ETH 2.0 upgrade benefits won’t land until Q2, so today’s rise is “pre-emptive speculation.” But short-term opportunities definitely exist—last December, a similar “news + technical resonance” saw ETH rise from 2800 to 3400 in 8 days. The current rhythm is exactly the same.
Summary: For short-term swings, avoid “long-term dreams.” Taking profits when the market looks good is the “survival rule” for retail investors.
4. Retail Operation Suggestions: 3 positions, 3 strategies
For cash-held retail investors: Don’t chase the high at 3312; wait for a pullback to around 3280 to enter with a small position, with a stop-loss at 3200 (exit immediately if broken—no hesitation).
For holding investors: Divide your take-profit into two levels—sell half at 3400, close all at 3500 (these are the “main force’s exit points”).
For heavy traders: Reduce your position to 50%, don’t bet on “one-sided rise,” because in crypto, “full position all-in” often ends with “just your underwear left.”
Master’s summary: Don’t chase the “highest point,” profit from what you can control—this is the “survival rule” for retail investors.