Recently, I keep getting asked the same question. It seems simple, but the core is quite profound: ETH surged from 3060 to a new high of 3383, then turned back and hovered around 3330. Is this the end of the rally or are the main players adjusting?

Honestly, in the past few days, there have been tons of news and various opinions. Many people see the MACD forming a death cross and then look at the candlestick chart dropping from the high point, and they can't wait to short the market, fearing they might miss this correction. All I can say is: stay calm.

Why do I say that? Because retail investors are too easily fooled by surface phenomena. A price pullback from a high does not equal a trend reversal—don't confuse this logic. To use an imperfect analogy, it's like seeing a driver step on the brakes and thinking he's about to reverse—he's just taking a breather, but some people rush straight under the wheels.

Let's break down the 1-hour chart details. The move from 3060 to 3380 was swift and rhythmic, clearly manipulated by coordinated funds. During this process, the chips accumulated very tightly, leaving retail investors hardly any chance to buy in at low prices. The current consolidation around 3330 isn't "the rally is over," but rather the main force is adjusting the rhythm.

The key information lies in the volume bars. During the rally, volume bars kept rising, showing that funds were pouring in aggressively. But now, during the sideways phase, the volume is as thin as toothpicks. What does this indicate? The main players haven't been unloading. Those hurriedly selling off are all worried about getting trapped.

From a technical perspective, support and resistance in this zone are quite clear. The 3300 level below is holding up, indicating the bulls still have confidence; to push higher, they need to break through the psychological barrier at 3400. Currently, they are repeatedly testing between these two levels, which is essentially a buildup of energy.

The real trading logic isn't complicated: the main players won't let the price drop easily, nor will they just dump everything for quick profit—it's not worth it. This rhythm suggests more of a consolidation phase preparing for the next wave of gains rather than a correction pressure. Those rushing to short are likely to become the final bagholders.

So, the biggest test at this stage is mindset. Looking at charts and indicators is just surface work; the key is understanding what the main players are thinking.