Bitcoin is shifting from a "defensive stance" to "preparing for an attack"



Just finished reading Glassnode's early-year research report.

Honestly, it was a bit of a grind.

The full title is Clearing the Decks,
Sounds cool, but the content density is off the charts.

If you really go through it page by page,
You'll find it's not meant for ordinary retail investors,

But for institutions, market makers, and derivatives traders.

But the point is
What it discusses is precisely the most important change in the current market.

So I’ve read the most difficult part of this report for you,
Leaving only one conclusion you need to know:

Bitcoin is shifting from a "defensive stance" to "preparing for an attack."

And this time, it’s not emotion, but structure.

1. What is this report about? One-sentence summary

Glassnode’s core judgment can be summarized in one sentence:

By the end of 2025, that "price-suppressing structure" has been cleared.

What does that mean?

Leverage washout is complete
Hedging expirations are over
Options structures have disintegrated
Selling pressure has temporarily disappeared

The market can finally "reprice based on true risk appetite."

This is what they call Clearing the Decks.

2. Why can it rise at the start of 2026?

There’s a very critical but often overlooked data point in the report:

👉 Realized profits have plummeted

In Q4 2025, most of the time:

Average daily realized profits: over $1 billion

By late December:

It dropped directly to $184 million

What does this imply?

It means that the funds that have been profiting at high levels and repeatedly selling into the market—

Have sold out, or no longer want to sell.

Especially long-term holders,
Selling pressure has noticeably weakened.

This isn’t about "suddenly a bull rushes in,"
But about sellers exiting, allowing prices to rise naturally.

3. But this doesn’t mean "the bull market is here"

Glassnode remains very calm.
They repeatedly emphasize one thing:

Above, there are very many trapped positions.

Specifically, where?

👉 $92,100 – $117,400

This is a dense zone of "waiting to be unwound."

People who jumped near last year’s all-time high,
Fell all the way to $80,000,
And now— even if they break even—
Some will sell.

So the essence of this cycle isn’t "a surge,"
But:

Digesting supply above.

4. A price that decides short-term fate: $99,100

If you only remember one number,
Glassnode wants you to remember this:

👉 $99,100

This is:

The average cost basis for short-term holders.

What does crossing it mean?

New funds start making money
Market psychology shifts from "recovering" to "profitable"
The trend structure can then be established

What if it doesn’t break above?
Glassnode directly references a historical comparison:

👉 The failed rebound of Q1 2022

Current data shows:

Short-term holder MVRV ≈ 0.95
Recent buyers are still, on average, 5% in loss

This is a very dangerous, but also critical position.

5. The real change is happening in derivatives

If you only look at the price,
You’ll miss the most important part of this report.

By the end of 2025,
Bitcoin options market experienced a historic reset:

Open interest in options contracts decreased by over 45% in one day

This has a huge impact.

Because it ended the previous state of:

Gamma suppression
Hedging locking in prices
"Cannot go far no matter how it moves"

It’s finally over.

The market can now truly reflect sentiment.

6. The signals from options are very clear: the direction has changed

Several key changes:

Implied volatility bottomed near Christmas
Put options premiums continued to narrow
Skew reverted to "neutral / slightly bullish"

More importantly:

👉 After the New Year, call options trading clearly outperformed

This isn’t FOMO madness,
But:

From defensive hedging to actively betting on a rise.

7. The most striking point: market makers are on the wrong side

There’s a sentence in the report that’s very easy to overlook but extremely important:

👉 In the $95,000 – $104,000 range,
👉 market makers are net short.

What does that mean?

It means:

As prices go up,
To hedge,
They are forced to buy passively

In other words:

The upward movement in this range is no longer suppressed; it might even be amplified.

8. Why is the $95,000 call option so critical?

Glassnode highlighted a specific detail:

When spot prices are still around $87,000,
Call options with a strike price of $95,000 are being continuously bought.

Later, when the price surged to $94,000:
There was no obvious profit-taking,
And call options sales only increased slightly.

What does this indicate?

It shows that these bulls:
Are not in a rush.

They’re not short-term gamblers,
But willing to wait for the trend to develop.

Finally, a big summary:

This report from Glassnode doesn’t say:
“The bull market has arrived.”

What they say is:
The structure suppressing prices is gone,
Defensive positions are retreating,
Risk appetite is beginning to return,
And bulls are starting to "attack with a plan."

The Bitcoin of 2026 isn’t a wild celebration start.

But it looks like:
A market preparing for re-pricing.

This report isn’t easy,
But understanding it,
Gives you a dimension ahead of those only looking at candlesticks.

If you find this kind of "hard report summary" useful,
Give a like / share it with others still debating the direction.
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GateUser-d3d18387vip
· 16h ago
Good luck in the Year of the Horse, hold onto your chips, and wait for the rise.
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GateUser-3902b4d1vip
· 16h ago
I wanted to learn from Tre
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