Behind PEPE's Violent Surge of 65%: When "Smart Money" Starts Betting on Meme, Is It a Bubble Upgrade or a Paradigm Shift?#MEME, #2026行情预测

When "Smart Money" Begins Betting on Meme, Is It a Bubble Upgrade or a Paradigm Shift?
As Leverage and Collective Agreements Become a New Narrative, Institutions Are Secretly Rewriting the Logic of Meme Coin Valuation.
Last week, the crypto market spotlight was on frogs. PEPE jumped counter to the market, rising 65% amid Bitcoin's decline and Ethereum's weakness, with its on-chain uncovered contracts reaching a historic peak of 75 trillion units. This is not a celebration for retail investors — data shows a large flow of high-leverage positions into this meme token born from a frog image.

It seems the "Meme Season" hype is announcing itself again. The value of Meme coins on the BSC network, named "I Came, Bro," exceeded $20 million within 24 hours, with a daily increase of over 63%. Meme communities on Ethereum, Solana, and Base have resumed activity, and discussion levels have sharply increased.

But this time, there is a subtle difference in the story. Leverage, technical analysis, institutional narratives — these traditional financial market terms are skillfully applied to Meme coins, which were previously considered "pure gambling." Is this the start of a new experiment, or a prelude to a more dangerous bubble?

1. Data Decoding: Who Is Pumping PEPE?
The rise of PEPE cannot be hidden. On-chain data shows its uncovered contracts peaked in early January, with high-leverage positions entering before the price started to rise.
• "This is not typical retail investor behavior," said independent analyst Tom Wong. "The contract volume of 75 trillion requires professional fund management and risk control, which is difficult for the average investor to achieve."
• This phenomenon is not the first. In early 2024, when DOGE stabilized around $0.06, its uncovered contracts surged by 300%. Three months later, DOGE reached $0.22, an increase of over 260%.
• A technical chart of PEPE is also "perfect": the price broke through a descending triangle pattern that lasted several months, with key support at $0.0000040, tested 8 times, with trading volume expanding during the rise and contracting during correction — a clear sign of liquidity gathering by big players.
• "The Meme coin momentum is heading toward 'institutional transformation'," wrote hedge fund analyst Pantera Capital in a recent report. "When hedge funds start trading Meme coins with derivatives, and technical analysis becomes effective on these tokens, we may need to redefine this asset class."

2. Ecosystem Evolution: From DOGE to PEPE, a Third Generation of Meme
The evolution of Meme coins has gone through three clear stages:
• First Generation: DOGE (Doge Coin) — born in 2013, initially a joke, then a viral symbol driven by Musk. Its core is "community faith" and "celebrity influence."
• Second Generation: SHIB (Shiba Inu) — at the 2021 bull market peak, attempted to build a "decentralized ecosystem" (ShibaSwap, Shibarium, and others) to surpass pure Meme classification and pursue "functionality."
• Third Generation: PEPE as a representative — a return to Meme's essence, with added financial tools and mature trading strategies. Leverage, futures, technical analysis have become standard, and the community maintains Meme's spirit with mastery of financing techniques.
Renowned Meme coin researcher CryptoKale said in an interview: "SHIB tries to become serious, but PEPE teaches us that admitting you're here for gambling is in itself a form of honesty." He added: "New-generation traders no longer need a 'scenario application'; they trade directly on liquidity, volatility, and sentiment."
This shift is especially clear at the public network level. Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Base, and others have produced their own leading Meme tokens. The Meme environment on each network resembles an arms race, becoming a key indicator of network activity and community cohesion.

3. Risk Structure: Stacked Leverage Air Towers
• Behind PEPE's celebrations, risks are also accumulating. Data shows about 60% of its uncovered contracts use leverage over 20x. This structure is like a castle built on quicksand — it makes huge profits during the rise, but during reversals, sequential liquidations could lead to a free fall in price.
• "The social media sentiment index has now reached 94 (out of 100), close to the DOGE peak level in May 2021." warned Joe Vizzani, CEO of analysis platform LunarCrush. "Historically, when Meme coin sentiment reaches this extreme, it often signals an approaching short-term top."
• External risks are no less important. The FOMC meeting in January is approaching, Trump’s crypto policies remain uncertain, and any unexpected external event could expose the Meme coin bubble.
• The deeper problem is that Meme coins lack a valuation anchor tied to traditional assets. "Their value depends entirely on collective belief, and belief is one of the most volatile things in the world," said behavioral finance professor Richard Peterson. "Once a new and exciting Meme appears, funds will flow into it without hesitation."

4. Investment Logic: How to Dance with Meme?
1. For investors willing to participate, the strategy must be very clear and cautious:
• Top Strategy: Focus on DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and other Meme coins that have proven effective across multiple cycles. They have high liquidity, strong collective agreement, and are considered "relatively safe." Buy on deep corrections, such as DOGE below $0.12, SHIB below $0.000007.
• Public Network Strategy: Avoid directly buying high-risk Meme coins; instead, invest in network tokens they depend on, such as SOL, BNB, ETH. Meme waves will bring trading volume, gas consumption, interest, and directly benefit network tokens. This is a safer and more sustainable way to capture value.
• Lottery Strategy: If you want to chase new Meme coins, treat it as "buying lottery tickets." Limit your share to 5% of your total portfolio, set strict stop-loss (like -30%). After profits, withdraw capital quickly and play with profits only.
Golden rule: never use leverage, do not believe in "wealth codes" or "gurus," do not buy at the FOMO top, and do not invest money that affects your life.

5. Future Outlook: Imagining the End of Meme Coins
The future of Meme coins may follow three paths:
• Scenario 1: Cyclical Assets — Meme coins become "volatility providers" in crypto markets, appearing periodically in mid and late bull markets. After each celebration, they leave chaos behind, but the next cycle returns strongly. This is the most likely scenario.
• Scenario 2: Mainstream Assets — Leading Meme coins (like DOGE) gain recognition from ETFs and other financial products, becoming part of alternative asset allocations. This requires regulatory breakthroughs and institutional support, a low but possible chance.
• Scenario 3: Bubble Burst — Authorities crack down hard, or the market crashes catastrophically, and Meme coin culture disappears from mainstream markets. Due to strong community spirit, this scenario has the lowest probability.

"No matter the ending, Meme coins have proven that narratives and communities in the digital age are a kind of asset," said Chris Dixon, partner at a16z crypto. "The question is not whether they have 'intrinsic value,' but whether we are ready to understand this new form of value."

When PEPE's K-chart begins to be seriously studied by technical analysts, when hedge funds allocate leverage to Meme coins, and when the "sentiment index" becomes a reference for decision-making — the rules of Meme coin game have changed. It is no longer just a playground for beginners but a poker table for pros.

PEPE's rocket jump is just the beginning. As more institutions and financial tools enter, Meme coin volatility will intensify, narratives will become more complex, and risks and opportunities will grow. The only constant is: in this game driven by sentiment and liquidity, those who leave first are the ones who pay.

The market favors narratives but rewards vigilance more. In Meme celebrations, is your position fueling emotions or making rational bets? Remember, in crypto markets, most profits come from patience and waiting for rare, decisive opportunities, not from frequent trading on every wave. Meme market moves fast, and it disappears faster. When everyone is talking in the streets, the time is often already over.

6. If you are still excited, you can place your order and then forget about it completely.
Core principle: treat Meme coin investing as "buying lottery tickets" or "risk hedging," not "value investing." Limit your share to 5% of your capital.
Focus your money and time on discovering real value and the trend strategies we discussed earlier.

Option A: Focus on the true leader (with a reasonable profit margin, high probability)
1. Divide 5% into two parts.
2. Use limit orders: place buy limit orders at DOGE $0.10-0.12, SHIB $0.000006-0.000007.
3. If executed, set a stop-loss at 20% below purchase price.
Logic: Bet on the return of the old king. They have the strongest resilience and brand influence, and will appear in the bull market.
Risks: They may enter a long consolidation phase, with very low capital efficiency.

Option B: Chase new trends (with high profit potential, very low probability)
1. Divide 5% into three parts.
2. Do not chase peaks. Select 1-2 new Meme coins with strong communities and deep trading, excluding PEPE which has surged significantly.
3. At the first deep correction after a big rise (more than -30%), invest $50 in the first part. Set a strict -30% stop-loss.
4. After profits, withdraw capital quickly and continue playing with profits only.
Logic: Bet on very high resilience. Similar to the performance of large fluctuations on BSC tokens.
Risks: Higher risk of total loss, liquidity may suddenly dry up.

Option C: Indirect participation via main network tokens (less risky)
Do not buy Meme coins directly. Use this money to buy more network tokens like SOL or BNB.
Logic: Meme waves will bring large trading volume, gas consumption, interest, and directly benefit network tokens. This is a safer and more sustainable way to capture value.

Strictly prohibited actions:
• Listening to any "wealth code" or "gurus’ advice."
• Buying at the top or during FOMO (like social sentiment index 94).
• Using leverage or funds that impact your life.

7. Final Tips and Psychological Management
We strongly recommend current vigilance.
• Not the right time: Genuine and sustainable Meme celebrations require that the underlying assets like BTC and ETH have exited a clear bull pattern and entered a phase correction with very high liquidity. Current conditions are incomplete.
• Very low value: Short-term peaks of PEPE and other coins are large, and risk/reward ratios are poor. DOGE and SHIB are still struggling at the bottom, and the timing of breakout is unknown.
• Capital protection: In the early bull phase, protecting capital and core holdings (BTC, ETH, and high-quality altcoins like UNI) is more important than chasing high-risk volatility.

Please note: The content of this article is derived from general market analysis and historical data, intended for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and any investment decision should be based on independent research.