Last night's non-farm payroll data was released: only 50,000 jobs were added in December, which is basically no growth. This number reveals a key issue—the job market is cooling down.

Interestingly, how did the market react? The likely chain of logic is as follows:

Weak employment data → The economy is indeed slowing down → The Federal Reserve needs to consider easing policies → To prevent a recession, interest rate cuts are necessary → The January meeting is now a done deal with no change.

But there's a deeper layer behind this. Economic slowdown means the Fed will eventually need to release liquidity, and loose monetary policy has never been bad for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The market initially expected a short-term surge, but now a rebound might actually occur. Why? Because the short-term negative (no rate cuts in January) has already been priced in, while the long-term positive (rate cut logic established) is surfacing.

However, don’t get too excited too early. Since a rate cut in January is now a certainty, the market lacks immediate fuel to push higher. Any rebound could be knocked down once the positive expectations are fulfilled.

The key will be subsequent data. If inflation data rises again, the expectation of rate cuts will be pushed further back, and the market could retest lows. So the best strategy is: don’t make any moves immediately after the data is released; give the market an hour to digest, then observe the direction clearly.