2026-01-10 07:04:31

delistment, team跑路)

Core probability and time window

- Short-term (within 1 month, including the unlock on January 18): High (65%)
- Key drivers: Unlocking 50 million tokens on January 18 (about $270 million), team withdrawing $94 million USDC from liquidity pools within three weeks, Meme hype fading + trading volume shrinking, macro liquidity tightening
- Trigger points: Volume surge and breaking key support after unlock, SEC investigation into celebrity Meme coins, exchanges adding monitoring/delist tags
- Medium-term (1–3 months, pre-midterm elections): Very high (80%)
- Key drivers: Continuous selling pressure from unlocks, stricter regulation (SEC possibly classifying as securities), political backlash, valuation reverting without fundamentals
- Long-term (6 months+): Very high (90%+), purely narrative coins under regulation and selling pressure are likely to enter long-term stagnation or zero

Risk intensity breakdown (Jintou Data dimensions)

1. Macro: Fed rate cuts below expectations, tightening crypto regulation (SEC crackdown on Meme coins), negative high-risk altcoins
2. Technical: Long-term trendline broken, RSI oversold with no rebound, concentration of chips in few addresses, volume spike and decline after unlock
3. Fundamentals: No underlying applications, team controlling (80% tokens locked), high unlock pressure, significant outflow from liquidity pools
4. Sentiment: Declining social media hype, decreasing search index, cooling market sentiment

Explosion scenario probabilities (by severity)

Scenario Probability Core Impact
Single-day decline ≥50% 45% Contract liquidation, liquidity exhaustion
SEC investigation/trading restrictions 35% Exchange delisting, sharp valuation drop
Team跑路/project termination 25% Tokens worthless, investors lose everything

Short-selling and risk control suggestions (based on your contract trading needs)

- Timing: Focus on volume and support levels before and after the January 18 unlock; if volume surges and support breaks, decisively short
- Stop-loss: Strictly set 5%–10% stop-loss to avoid margin calls during rebounds
- Position: No more than 10% of total funds in a single token, diversify risk
- Monitoring: Daily tracking of macro events, regulatory updates, on-chain liquidity, and trading volume from Jintou Data

TRUMP0,7%

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