2026-01-09 17:20:19

Seeing Bitcoin drop 2.56% in a single day, a bunch of newbies start shouting "Something's really wrong." But this reaction actually misses the more important point. Today, let's analyze from the perspective of the actual market operation logic, focusing on short-term noise in price movements versus long-term factors that can truly change the game.

The market's temperament is easy to understand: in the short term, it reacts to sentiment; in the long term, it depends on supply, demand, and regulatory framework. The two key pieces of information announced by the US today—establishing a national-level reserve and the "no buying, no selling" commitment—seem contradictory, but the market reactions triggered are quite logical.

In the short term, many people previously expected the US to continue large-scale gold-like accumulation, and now that this expectation has been disappointed, selling pressure has emerged. This kind of emotional adjustment is perfectly normal.

But if you draw conclusions based only on the short term, you risk missing the real turning point. From the supply side, 200,000 BTC are permanently locked at the national level (this is just the current scale; in the future, enforcement seizures will increase this number). What does this mean for an asset with a fixed total supply of 21 million? The circulating supply's "liquid water" is decreasing, and the scarcity premium will naturally be re-evaluated. Historical data shows that each time MicroStrategy increased its holdings, it led to subsequent long-term upward trends. The impact of permanent reserves at the national level will be much greater.

From a regulatory perspective, this marks a shift from fragmented regulation to a coordinated policy framework in the US. This policy-level certainty is essentially paving the way for the long-term development of the entire asset class. The short-term 2.56% decline, in this broader context, is simply a normal market adjustment.

BTC0,52%

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0xSunnyDay

· 01-09 17:49

Starting to cry at just 2.56% really shows you should learn the fundamentals properly. Permanent locking of national reserves is the real big deal.

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SchrodingerAirdrop

· 01-09 17:43

20,000 Bitcoins permanently locked, this is the core, beginners can't understand The recent US move is essentially a bullish signal, just need to posture correctly A 2.56% decline, no need to panic, circulating supply is shrinking This logic is clearer than anything else, it all depends on who can distinguish short-term noise from long-term patterns National-level reserves > MicroStrategy's increased holdings, the scale is on a different level The true scarcity premium is just beginning to be re-evaluated When beginners shout "big trouble," it's the moment veterans quietly accumulate With regulatory framework certainty established, the fun is just beginning

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airdrop_whisperer

· 01-09 17:40

What are newbies panicking about? 200,000 coins are locked, and the circulating supply is so small. In the long run, this is essentially mining. It's really unbearable. When Americans "neither buy nor sell," everyone starts to falter. The scope is too small. National-level reserves are much more reliable than small moves like micro strategies. The re-evaluation of scarcity is only a matter of time. A short-term 2.56% is nothing; clarifying the regulatory framework is the real nuclear option. Those shouting "big trouble" now will be the ones eating their words. The logic of tightening supply can't be avoided; it all depends on who can withstand this wave of adjustment.

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Ramen_Until_Rich

· 01-09 17:40

2.56% decline is nothing; locking up 200,000 at the national level is the real deal.

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ReverseTradingGuru

· 01-09 17:30

Damn it, coming up with this again. Locking 200,000 tokens can change the game? I think this is just telling a story to retail investors.

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BoredRiceBall

· 01-09 17:24

What are newbies panicking about? A 2.56% drop is really nothing. The real focus should be on the 200,000 coins permanently locked, that's the key. --- Haha, the US's "buying and not selling" approach really messes with people. I thought they would keep buying aggressively. --- Wait, reducing the circulating supply is correct; scarcity will be re-priced. The influence of national-level reserves definitely surpasses that of MicroStrategy. --- I was just saying that newbies are easily driven by short-term emotions; the long-term framework is the real way to go. --- From both supply and regulatory perspectives, this is indeed a watershed moment. The decline isn't painful at all. --- This time, the US has provided some certainty, much stronger than the fragmented regulations before. --- Permanently locking 200,000 coins—just think about how small the circulating supply is. It should go up later. --- Once again proving that newbie retail investors always operate in reverse; they panic when prices fall. --- But to be honest, the real turning point must be viewed from supply, demand, and policy perspectives; emotions are just noise.

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