Ray Dalio's latest macro review boils down to one sentence:

In 2026, continuing to focus only on #美股 and #AI is likely the riskiest choice.
Many people look back at 2025:
👉 "Bull market in US stocks"
👉 "AI changing the world"
But Dalio's perspective is very calm, even a bit sobering👇
The true determinants of victory or defeat in 2025 are actually just two main themes:
First:
💵 Currency depreciation, especially the US dollar
The dollar has fallen 39% against gold in one year
Second:
📉 Under "strong currency" valuation, US stocks are not actually strong
Compared to gold and European-American currencies, US stocks are clearly underperforming
In one sentence:
The money you earn may just be because the currency in which you measure is weakening.
Many people feel they "made a fortune" in 2025,
But if you look at 👇 using gold as the unit
S&P 500: -28%
US bonds: -34%
Cash: even worse
Gold, on the other hand:
👉 The strongest asset throughout the year, bar none
Dalio directly exposes an overlooked truth:
Weak currencies will inflate all "nominal returns."
Here's another more dangerous signal⚠️
He calculates long-term returns based on current valuations:
📊 Long-term expected return of stocks: 4.7%
📊 Long-term expected return of bonds: 4.9%
In other words—
The risk premium for stocks is almost gone.
What does this mean?
It means that as long as:
Interest rates rise
Liquidity tightens
Credit spreads widen
👉 The stock market & credit assets will be very sensitive
And AI?
Dalio's one-sentence assessment:
AI is in the "early stage" of a bubble.
Not that it’s useless,
But:
📈 Prices are running far ahead of actual implementation
And there's another point many are reluctant to face👇
Global funds are moving out of the US.
Performance in 2025:
🇪🇺 European stocks > US stocks
🇨🇳 Chinese stocks > US stocks
🇯🇵 Japanese stocks > US stocks
🟡 Gold > everything
The US is no longer the only answer.
Adding a political undercurrent:
Trump’s policies are essentially a
👉 Use of fiscal + monetary leverage to bet on a "time window"
The problem is:
⏳ This window is likely to start narrowing after 2026
Meanwhile,
Anti-capitalist and anti-billionaire political forces are gathering.
Money, wealth, and inflation will become increasingly politicized.
Dalio didn't give a "buy list" in the end,
But he offered a very important reminder👇
❌ Don't focus only on nominal returns
❌ Don't trust a single narrative
❌ Don't equate "rising" with "winning"
✅ Watch currency
✅ Watch risk premiums
✅ Watch liquidity
✅ Watch changes in order
In 2026, more than choosing the right assets, what matters most is your ability to think independently.
What’s your view?
Are your current positions betting on trends,
or being led by trends?