[爱心] Key Market Variables Today (January 7)

1. Sentiment and Expectations

The Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 41, indicating a neutral to cautious sentiment. Market risk appetite has not yet recovered to an offensive stance.

Tonight, the US "Small Non-Farm" (ADP) data will be released, which may short-term impact the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets volatility.

2. Macro and Safe-Haven Assets

The People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, continuing the long-term de-dollarization and reserve diversification trend.

Spot gold and silver prices have retreated in the short term, with silver falling below $79, mainly reflecting technical adjustments at high levels rather than trend reversals.

Morgan Stanley is bullish on gold, targeting $4,800, believing that the rate-cut cycle and global uncertainties will sustain the gold bull market logic.

3. Capital Flows and Structural Divergence

The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $240 million yesterday, exerting some short-term pressure on BTC.

The US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $113.64 million, indicating a clear structural shift from BTC to ETH.

4. Institutional and Market Dynamics

All perpetual preferred stocks under Strategy are now listed on Cash App, helping to expand traditional capital access to related assets.

Ark Invest increased its holdings by approximately 169,000 Roblox shares yesterday, worth about $12.825 million, showing that ARK's risk appetite for growth assets remains.

📌 Overall Analysis

Macro Level: The long-term logic for safe-haven assets (gold) remains unchanged, but short-term high-level consolidation is underway.

Crypto Market: The capital structure of BTC under pressure and ETH relatively stronger continues.

Short-term Variables: Tonight’s ADP data may amplify volatility but is more likely to influence the pace rather than change the trend.