$BTC

Why the monthly open PA is statistically bearish (in the immediate term), backed by data.

We started the month of January with a bullish pump, but will it last? We can look at the statistical quality of the monthly low to get an idea.

@BrighterData is flagging 2 warnings for the monthly low:

- 90.7% of months put in the first extreme (monthly high or low) later than the 4th trading hour of the month
- 97.1% of months have a bigger wick at the monthly low when the monthly low is first

This means that the monthly low is unusually early and has an unusually small wick. These lows hold only during strong trends.

As you know, on the mid-timeframes I am bullish and expecting a rotation up towards macro range highs (±115k).

However, locally we are still ranging as well and the range is the range until it breaks. Combining that with the statistics mentioned above, a scenario as such seems most likely to me:

If the local range breaks to the upside then that greatly increases the odds of holding the monthly low for the remainder of the month.

But until it does, my base case will be that price will be looking to take out the local lows within this month.