Maduro's fall "releases" $60 billion worth of Bitcoin "shadow reserves," reshaping the global market landscape

On January 5th, analyst Serenity revealed that based on publicly available information, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has accumulated a “shadow reserve” of over $60 billion worth of Bitcoin and USDT, established since 2018 through “gold swaps” and by demanding USDT settlement for oil exports to evade sanctions. Previously, due to the failure of Venezuela’s “Oil Coin” experiment, the Maduro regime turned to using USDT as a substitute for oil dollars during crude oil sales. As they realized that USDT still has the function of freezing addresses, Venezuela began converting USDT into Bitcoin. The estimated holdings are as follows: Bitcoin accumulated through gold swaps from 2018-2020, with gold proceeds converted into Bitcoin at an average price of $5,000, currently valued at approximately $45 billion to $50 billion; Bitcoin from oil exports in 2023-2025, currently valued at about $10 billion to $15 billion; Bitcoin seized through mining seizures in 2023-2024, about $500 million. In total, the Bitcoin accumulated by Venezuela from 2018 to 2026 is estimated to be around $56 billion to $67 billion, with an implied Bitcoin quantity exceeding 660,000 coins, at a minimum 600,000 coins. Even if Maduro is currently detained, it does not mean the United States has fully control over these Bitcoins. Major interrogations surrounding Maduro will unfold, reshaping the global Bitcoin market landscape.