AAVE bearish trend intensifies, simultaneous pressure from large whale sell-offs and technical bearish signals

Aave(AAVE), which experienced a decline of over 12% last week, is currently trading around $164.50 on Monday, showing slight stabilization but still exposed to strong selling pressure. On-chain data and technical indicators are both signaling bearish momentum, suggesting a high risk of further correction in the near future.

Whale Capital Outflows Accelerate, Large Sell Signals Detected

According to monitoring data from Lookonchain, on Monday, large whale wallets sold a substantial 230,350 AAVE, releasing approximately $37.8 million into the market. This movement is interpreted as a reduction in institutional-grade positions beyond simple profit-taking.

Even more noteworthy is the Santiment network Realized Profit and Loss (NPL) indicator. This indicator has risen to its highest level since late November, indicating that holders are placing sell orders at significant profit levels simultaneously. The sharp increase on Monday strongly suggests that large-scale profit realization is underway.

Technical Indicators Signal Continuous Bearish Trends

Failure to Break Moving Average Resistance

AAVE failed to sustain upward momentum past the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $193.61 on December 10, and subsequently dropped over 18% by Sunday. The 50-day EMA is a key indicator of medium-term trend; failing to break above it indicates that upward momentum has been exhausted.

Weakening Momentum Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 36, below the neutral level of 50, reflecting persistent downward pressure. The MACD has shifted back to a negative signal after last week’s bullish crossover, further supporting the bearish outlook.

Future Scenarios: Additional Decline Possible if Support Breaks

Bearish Scenario

If AAVE closes below the daily support level of $160.51, further declines are expected. This could lead to a drop toward the November 21 low of $147.13. Spot traders should consider this level as a maximum loss threshold.

Rebound Scenario

A short-term rebound might occur if the price recovers to the daily resistance at $179.27. However, this would likely be insufficient to reverse the medium-term bearish trend.

The current environment can be described as a ‘perfect bearish storm,’ characterized by whale capital outflows, accelerated profit-taking, and simultaneous weakening of technical indicators. AAVE holders should closely monitor whether support levels hold or break.