2026 Market Outlook: Where Will Gold, Bitcoin, and Major Assets Head? Institutions' Consensus and Divergences

After 2025’s dramatic swings across commodities, cryptocurrencies, and forex markets, investors are asking: what’s the playbook for 2026? Let’s break down where leading financial institutions see these key assets moving.

Precious Metals Poised for Gains

Gold’s Golden Year Ahead

Gold delivered a stunning 60% return in 2025 — its best year since 1979. The World Gold Council expects this momentum to continue into 2026, with potential gains of 5–15% under base-case scenarios. In a recession or aggressive Fed pivot, gold could surge 15–30%.

Goldman Sachs targets USD 4,900/oz by end-2026, citing sustained central bank demand and ETF inflows. Bank of America takes an even more bullish stance, forecasting USD 5,000/oz as U.S. fiscal deficits widen and debt service becomes heavier. Both camps cite similar tailwinds: weaker dollar prospects, lingering geopolitical risks, and potential rate cuts.

Silver’s Supply Story

Silver’s 2025 outperformance versus gold wasn’t accidental. The Silver Institute flags a structural supply deficit that’s expected to persist and potentially deepen in 2026. Industrial demand recovery, investment interest, and slowing production create a supportive backdrop.

UBS raised its 2026 silver target to USD 58–60/oz, with upside to USD 65/oz. Bank of America independently arrives at the same USD 65/oz call for year-end 2026.

Crypto Markets: Bitcoin at Crossroads, Ethereum Betting on Tokenization

Bitcoin’s Cycle Debate

Bitcoin ended 2025 nearly flat after hitting historical highs mid-year. The current price stands at $91.29K with +1.79% movement over 24 hours. Yet divergent views on the path forward split the analyst community.

Standard Chartered slashed its 2026 Bitcoin target from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, expecting crypto treasury buying to fade while ETF inflows remain strong. Bernstein echoes the USD 150,000 call for 2026, but projects acceleration to USD 200,000 in 2027. The firm argues Bitcoin has broken its traditional four-year boom-bust cycle and entered an elongated bull phase.

Morgan Stanley disagrees, asserting the four-year pattern persists and the current bull run is aging.

Ethereum’s Tokenization Tailwind

Ethereum also finished 2025 nearly flat, trading around $3.14K (+1.31% in the last 24 hours). Yet institutional enthusiasm is higher here.

JPMorgan sees massive upside from tokenization infrastructure, with Ethereum as the backbone. BitMain Chairman Tom Lee goes further, forecasting USD 20,000 for ETH in 2026, predicting 2025 marked the bottom and a significant rally lies ahead.

Equities: U.S. Tech Outperformance Likely to Continue

The Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, outpacing the S&P 500’s 18%. The AI capex cycle shows no signs of slowing.

JPMorgan highlights Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta’s massive data center buildouts. Combined capex could exceed several hundred billion dollars through 2026, supporting chip and semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan’s upside S&P 500 scenario points to 7,500 by end-2026. Deutsche Bank is more aggressive, sketching paths to 8,000. Translating to Nasdaq 100, analysts see potential for surpassing 27,000 points in 2026.

Forex: Dollar Weakness and Divergent Policy Views

EUR/USD: Further Upside on Divergence

EUR/USD soared 13% in 2025 — its best year in nearly eight years. The driver: U.S. dollar softness amid Fed easing expectations versus European Central Bank tightening restraint.

JPMorgan and Nomura target 1.20 by year-end 2026. Bank of America is more bullish at 1.22. Morgan Stanley cautions of a two-act play: EUR/USD rises to 1.23 in H1 2026, then retreats to 1.16 in H2 as U.S. growth outpaces Europe.

USD/JPY: Rate Differentials and Carry Unwind Risk

USD/JPY declined roughly 1% in 2025 after an early rebound. Converting 200,000 yen to USD at current levels illustrates carry trade dynamics — a topic that divides forecasters.

JPMorgan expects USD/JPY to climb to 164 by end-2026, betting that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are priced in and Japanese fiscal stimulus weighs on the yen.

Nomura presents the opposing case: narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differentials will reduce carry appeal, and weaker U.S. data could trigger unwinding. It forecasts USD/JPY falling to 140 by year-end 2026.

Energy: Crude Oil Under Supply Pressure

Crude oil prices plummeted nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. production climbed. Institutions largely see oversupply risks dominating 2026.

Goldman Sachs’ bearish scenario pegs WTI at USD 52/barrel and Brent at USD 56/barrel. JPMorgan’s downside case lands WTI near USD 54 and Brent around USD 58, contingent on sustained surplus conditions.

The Takeaway

2026 shapes up as a year of selective opportunities: precious metals and selective crypto plays show promise, U.S. equities retain support from AI capex, while energy faces headwinds and forex markets hinge on central bank policy divergence and macro data surprises.