Gold on the horizon... Are we witnessing new highs or corrections? Gold price forecasts for the coming days

Exceptional Bullish Path and Driving Factors

Since the beginning of 2025, a new chapter has begun in the precious metals markets, where gold experienced a rare movement in its upward rates, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce threshold during mid-October trading, before experiencing some contraction to settle near $4,000 in the following month. This volatility raised deep questions among traders about what the coming year might hold in terms of opportunities or challenges.

The yellow metal’s rally did not come out of nowhere; rather, it resulted from the accumulation of multiple economic and political factors. Record investment demand, central banks around the world strengthening their reserves, concerns over a slowdown in global economic growth, and the gradual return of accommodative monetary policies—all created an ideal environment for gold’s value to rise as a safe haven in global investors’ portfolios.

Uncertainty over increasing sovereign debt, tensions in global supply chains, and geopolitical instability deepened demand for gold as a protective tool against market volatility. Gold has become a fundamental item in hedging strategies for major financial institutions and individuals alike.

New Record… Investment Demand Makes a Difference

Data from the World Gold Council tells a different story than many expect:

Total gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, but the monetary value jumped by 45% to $132 billion. The first quarter of the same year recorded a demand of 1,206 tons, the highest Q1 figure since 2016.

Gold ETFs absorbed massive cash inflows, raising their managed assets to $472 billion, with actual holdings increasing to 3,838 tons, a 6% growth from the previous period. This figure approached a historic peak of 3,929 tons, reflecting unprecedented institutional interest.

North America led the global demand with over 55%, with 345.7 tons out of a total of 618.8 tons in the first half of the year. Europe followed with 148.4 tons, while Asia accounted for 117.8 tons.

Notably, about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last season, influenced by expectations of continued rise and extensive media coverage. Retail investors maintained their positions even during temporary corrections, which helped stabilize prices at high levels.

Central Banks… Strategic Support for Demand

The behavior of central banks worldwide reflects a new economic reality:

Central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the five-year average. Interestingly, 44% of global central banks now manage gold reserves, compared to only 37% in 2024.

This shift indicates a growing desire among monetary policymakers to diversify their reserve assets away from the US dollar and its overexposure. China continued purchasing, adding over 65 tons through the People’s Bank of China, maintaining this for the twenty-second consecutive month. Turkey increased its reserves to over 600 tons. India and other emerging countries strengthened their holdings of gold as a hedge against currency fluctuations.

The World Gold Council forecasts this trend will continue to support demand until the end of 2026, especially as emerging markets seek to protect their economies from currency volatility and external pressures.

Supply Dilemma… Production Fails to Keep Up with Demand

Global mines face multiple challenges:

Worldwide gold production from mines hit a record 856 tons in Q1 2025, but the increase was very modest at only 1% year-over-year. This marginal rise is insufficient to fill the widening gap between surging demand and limited supply.

Recycled gold declined by 1% in the same period, as owners of gold jewelry preferred to hold onto their assets in anticipation of further price increases, deepening the relative scarcity in the market.

Mining operational costs rose sharply, with average global extraction costs exceeding $1,470 per ounce by mid-2025, the highest in the last decade. This rise in costs limits production expansion even when prices are very high.

Industrial and technological demand remained limited due to rising costs and trade restrictions, meaning profits mainly come from investment and hedging activities.

Federal Reserve and the Upcoming Monetary Path

US monetary policy decisions dominate the price trend:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. The accompanying statement indicated possible further cuts if the labor market weakens or economic growth slows.

Some Fed officials supported more aggressive measures, with expectations of two additional cuts before the end of 2025. Futures markets price in another 25 basis point cut at the December meeting.

Major investment firms suggest the Fed may target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. Declining real yields on bonds will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting its attractiveness as an investment tool.

However, these forecasts depend on inflation stability and the labor market’s response to growing economic pressures—assumptions that may not materialize as expected.

Global Monetary Policies and Divergent Effects

Major central banks are moving in different directions:

The European Central Bank continued tightening its monetary policy to combat inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan maintained its long-term easing stance. The US Federal Reserve began a gradual easing cycle.

This divergence has created a conflicting environment that has reinforced gold’s role as a unified global hedge. Investors seek to balance their portfolios across different markets governed by contrasting monetary policies.

Sovereign Debt and Remaining Inflationary Pressures

Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF:

This unprecedented debt level has raised serious concerns about the sustainability of long-term fiscal policies. Investors turned to gold as protection against erosion of purchasing power amid potential future inflation.

The World Bank estimated gold prices could rise by 35% in 2025 but forecast a decline in 2026 as inflationary pressures ease, with prices remaining high compared to pre-COVID levels.

A weak dollar and slowing growth in advanced economies supported metal prices, especially gold, which is increasingly viewed as a safe alternative amid rising sovereign debt risks.

Fiscal austerity programs in major economies slowed down, increasing pressure on bond markets. Data showed that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions and Safe Havens

Trade conflicts and regional tensions heightened investors’ appetite for protection:

The US-China trade dispute, along with Middle East tensions, prompted investors to increase their exposure to gold. News agencies reported that geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 raised demand by 7% annually.

Major funds turned to hedge against emerging market risks and energy price volatility. As concerns about the Taiwan Strait and energy supplies escalated, spot prices jumped to over $3,400 per ounce in July 2025.

With ongoing uncertainty and tensions, gold continued its ascent, surpassing $4,300 per ounce in October 2025. This historical behavior confirms that any new geopolitical shock in 2026 could trigger a strong buying wave again.

Dollar Movements and Real Yields

The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar is fundamental to understanding price movements:

The US dollar declined by about 7.64% from its peak at the start of 2025 until the end of November 2025. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to around 4.07% at the end of November 2025.

This dual decline enhanced gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge and diversification asset. Investors seek to rebalance their portfolios away from dollar-denominated assets.

Major US bank analysts believe that if this trend continues, it could support gold prices in 2026, especially with real yields stabilizing near 1.2% and ongoing dollar pressure from accommodative monetary policy.

What Do Experts Expect for 2026?

Analyst forecasts converge around a specific range, but with differing details:

HSBC expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 during the year, compared to an average of $3,455 in 2025. This projection is based on increasing geopolitical risks and demand from new investors.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak in 2026, with an expected average of $4,400, but warned of possible short-term corrections if profit-taking begins.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing stronger inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan projected gold reaching around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The common consensus among experts indicates a potential peak range of $4,800–$5,000, with an average between $4,200–$4,800 during the year.

Middle East Scenarios… Local Expectations

Notable improvement in regional central banks’ gold reserves:

The Central Bank of Egypt added 1 ton in Q1 2025, and the Central Bank of Qatar added 3 tons. These moves, though modest in quantity, reflect growing interest in diversifying reserves.

Based on global forecasts, gold could approach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 under some optimistic scenarios.

In the Egyptian context, this could translate to approximately 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, a 158% increase compared to current prices.

In Saudi Arabia, assuming a fixed exchange rate of 3.75–3.80 riyals per dollar, the price could reach about 18,750–19,000 SAR per ounce.

In the UAE, under the same assumptions, prices might be around 18,375–19,000 AED per ounce.

These projections depend on exchange rate stability, continued global demand, and no major economic shocks.

Downside Scenarios and Potential Corrections

Not all forecasts are fully optimistic:

HSBC warned that upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with corrections possibly down to $4,200 if investors start profit-taking, but excluding a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs indicated that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” i.e., the ability of gold to maintain high levels amid weak industrial demand.

However, analysts at J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward sharply, thanks to a strategic shift viewing it as a long-term asset rather than just a short-term speculative tool.

Technical Analysis… What Does the Chart Say?

Technical levels provide a clear view of support and resistance zones:

As of the close on November 21, 2025, gold closed at $4,065 per ounce, after touching a peak of $4,381.44 on October 20, 2025.

Price broke below the ascending channel line on the daily chart but maintained the main upward trend line connecting lows around $4,050.

$4,000 represents a strong support zone and a critical threshold. Breaking below it with a clear daily close could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci), before resuming upward movement.

First strong resistance at $4,200, then $4,400 and $4,680.

The RSI indicator remains at level 50, indicating neutrality between selling and buying pressures, meaning the market is in a waiting or accumulation phase.

The MACD shows an upward trend with the signal line above zero.

The technical outlook favors continued sideways trading in a slightly upward sloping range between $4,000–$4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trend line.

Summary and Future Outlook

Gold’s journey in 2025 has been extraordinary, but the real question concerns sustainability:

Forecasts for gold prices in the coming days revolve around a struggle between temporary profit-taking and ongoing institutional buying waves. As the cycle of monetary tightening nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, multiple scenarios are possible.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to record new historic highs approaching or exceeding $5,000.

Conversely, if inflation recedes quickly and confidence returns to financial markets, the metal may enter a long-term stabilization phase that prevents reaching ambitious levels.

The truth is, gold in 2026 will remain a vital investment tool, requiring ongoing monitoring of market movements, monetary policies, and major geopolitical events.