Gold Price Predictions 2026: Are We Facing a Historic Breakthrough Toward $5000?

Gold experienced an exceptional upward trajectory in 2025, breaking the $4,300 per ounce barrier before undergoing a correction back to levels around $4,000. This sharp movement raised intense questions among traders and investors about what to expect for gold in 2026, and whether safe-haven assets will succeed in breaking new record levels or if the correction will take its share of gains.

Factors Supporting Gold Price Rise in 2026

1- Central Banks’ Appetite for Gold Reserves

Central bank purchases are among the strongest demand drivers for gold, with these entities adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year historical average. More importantly, 44% of global central banks now manage gold reserves, up from 37% a year earlier, reflecting a strategic shift toward diversification away from the US dollar.

China, Turkey, and India are leading this trend, with the People’s Bank of China alone adding 65 tons, completing a continuous buying streak that has lasted over 20 months. Turkey’s reserves have risen to over 600 tons. This trend is expected to continue strongly in 2026, especially in emerging markets seeking to protect their local currencies from exchange rate volatility.

2- Widening Gap Between Demand and Supply

Total gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, valued at over $132 billion, a 45% increase from the previous year. This massive demand is not matched by a proportional supply from local production, which amounted to 856 tons in Q1, a slight increase of only 1%.

The situation is exacerbated by a 1% decline in recycled gold, as wallet holders prefer to hold onto their gold holdings rather than sell, amid expectations of continued price increases. Additionally, mining costs have risen to around $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade, limiting production expansion despite high prices.

3- Record Inflows into Gold ETFs

Gold ETFs experienced massive inflows in 2025, with assets under management reaching $472 billion and total holdings rising to 3,838 tons, a 6% increase over the previous quarter. This figure approaches the all-time peak of 3,929 tons, indicating that institutional investors are still accumulating positions.

Bloomberg data shows that 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year, maintaining their positions even during correction periods, which supports price stability from the bottom.

4- Global Monetary Policy Moving Toward Easing

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates in October 2025 by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.00%, marking the second cut since December 2024. Market analysts expect a third cut of 25 basis points at the December 2025 meeting.

BlackRock estimates that the Fed may target a 3.4% interest rate by the end of 2026 in a moderate scenario. These cuts lead to lower real yields on bonds, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its relative attractiveness.

5- Ongoing Pressure on the Dollar and Yields

The US dollar index has declined about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 to November 21, influenced by expectations of rate cuts and slowing growth. Similarly, 10-year US Treasury yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% at the end of November.

This double decline boosts institutional demand for gold, as investors seek to rebalance their portfolios away from dollar-denominated assets. Stable real yields near 1.2% and persistent dollar pressure suggest a potential upward trend for gold.

Threats and Constraining Factors

Geopolitical Tensions: A Double-Edged Sword

Trade conflicts between the US and China and Middle East tensions increased demand for gold as a safe haven by 7% year-over-year. When concerns about Taiwan and energy supplies escalated, spot prices surged above $3,400 in July, and exceeded $4,300 in October.

However, stabilization of geopolitical situations could ease this upward pressure in the medium term.

Risks of Correction and Profit-Taking

HSBC warned that the bullish momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a potential correction toward $4,200 per ounce if investors start taking profits. Nonetheless, the bank excludes a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs adds that sustained prices above $4,800 could lead the market to a “price credibility test,” where industrial demand is expected to decline.

What Do Experts Say? Gold Price Forecasts 2026

Optimistic Bullish Outlooks

HSBC predicts that gold could surge toward $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected average of $4,600 for the full year, compared to an average of $3,455 in 2025.

Bank of America raised its peak forecast to $5,000, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a short-term correction possibility.

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong ETF inflows and continued central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan’s forecasts point to a target of $5,055 by mid-2026.

Consensus on the Range of Expectations

The prevailing view among major analysts indicates:

• Potential peak: $4,800 to $5,000
• Expected average: $4,200 to $4,800

Gold Price Outlook in Arab Markets

In Egypt

Analysts expect the gold price to reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce by 2026, representing a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE

If global gold prices approach $5,000 as expected, this could translate to:

• Saudi Arabia: approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce
• UAE: approximately 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce

( Assuming exchange rates remain stable and no major economic fluctuations occur )

Technical Analysis: What Does the Chart Say?

Gold closed trading on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01, after touching a high of $4,381.44 on October 20. The price broke below the ascending channel on the daily timeframe but still maintains support at the main upward trendline connecting lows around $4,050.

Critical levels:

• Strong support: $4,000 ( Crucial for trend determination )
• First resistance: $4,200
• Higher resistances: $4,400 and $4,680

Momentum indicators:

• RSI is steady at 50, indicating market neutrality
• MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend

Expected technical scenario: Sideways upward trading between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, maintaining a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Summary: What’s Next?

2026 appears to hold strong bullish signals for gold, especially with ongoing central bank accumulation, declining real yields, and a weakening dollar. The range of $4,800–$5,000 seems realistic if supportive factors persist.

However, it’s important not to overlook potential correction risks in the second half of the year, especially if investors start profit-taking or US economic data improves.

Golden advice: Continuous monitoring of monetary, geopolitical, and economic data will be key to understanding gold’s movement and timing investment decisions in 2026.