2026: Will gold lead investors toward $5000?

After 2025, which saw unprecedented jumps in gold prices, the pressing question is: Will this rise continue in 2026? Gold price forecasts for the coming days paint a mixed picture of optimism and caution, as several major investment banks expect the yellow metal to reach new record levels.

Will Gold Prices Really Reach $5000?

Forecasts from the world’s largest investment banks indicate a strong possibility of achieving this ambitious level. HSBC predicts a surge in gold toward $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected annual average of $4600, well above the 2025 average of $3455.

Conversely, Bank of America raised its forecast to the same level (5000 dollars) as a potential peak, but warned of a possible short-term correction to take profits. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast to $4900 per ounce, while J.P. Morgan indicated the possibility of reaching around $5055 by mid-2026.

The most consensus range among analysts extends between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an annual average between $4200 and $4800.

What Supports This Rise?

Unprecedented Investment Demand: Total demand for gold in Q2 2025 reached approximately 1249 tons, a 45% increase in value ($132 billion). Gold ETF inflows surged, pushing managed assets to $472 billion, with holdings reaching 3838 tons.

Ongoing Central Bank Purchases: Global central banks added 244 tons during Q1 2025, a 24% increase over the historical average. Now, 44% of central banks hold gold reserves (compared to 37% in 2024), with China, Turkey, and India leading the buyers.

Supply Scarcity: Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1, but this did not keep pace with rising demand. Recycled gold declined by 1%, as owners preferred to hold onto their assets expecting further increases. Global extraction costs rose to around $1470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade.

Accommodative Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025, with expectations of further cuts. Markets anticipate an additional 25 basis points reduction in December 2025. The interest rate could reach 3.4% by the end of 2026 in the moderate scenario.

Sovereign Debt and Inflation: Global public debt exceeded 100% of GDP, boosting gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Bloomberg data shows that about 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold positions during Q3 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions: Trade conflicts between the US and China and Middle East tensions prompted investors to increase hedges. Reports reveal that geopolitical uncertainty increased demand by 7% year-over-year.

Weakening Dollar: The dollar index declined by about 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through November 2025. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in November, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Risks That Could Hinder the Rise

Profit-taking: HSBC warned of a potential correction toward $4200 per ounce in the second half of 2026 if investors start taking profits. The bank excludes a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Price Credibility Test: Goldman Sachs warned that sustained prices above $4800 could pose a “credibility test” due to weak industrial demand.

Unexpected Monetary Tightening: Any return to tightening by major central banks could negatively impact institutional demand for gold.

Technical Analysis for Early 2026

Gold closed November 2025 at $4065 per ounce, after touching its all-time high of $4381 in mid-October 2025. The price broke below the ascending channel line but still maintains the main short-term upward trend.

Key Support Levels:

• $4000 strong support (crucial level)
• $3800 Fibonacci 50% correction
• A clear break below $4000 could target $3800

Resistance Levels:

• $4200 first strong resistance
• $4400 second resistance
• $4680 long-term target

Momentum Indicators: The RSI remains around 50, indicating a neutral market with no clear bias. The MACD stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

Expected Scenario: Trading within a sideways upward range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with a positive outlook as long as the price remains above the main trendline.

Middle East Forecast 2026

In Egypt: Based on gold price forecasts, it could reach approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce, representing a 158.46% increase over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia: If gold reaches $5000 (optimistic scenario), this could translate to about 18,750 to 19,000 SAR per ounce (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR/USD).

In the UAE: With the same forecast ($5000), the price could be around 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Summary

Gold price forecasts for the upcoming days indicate a promising future for the yellow metal, especially with the continued weakness of the dollar, accommodative monetary policies, and strong institutional demand from central banks and investment funds. However, reaching $5000 is not guaranteed, as the metal may face corrective phases testing buyers’ resolve.

Ultimately, gold remains a strong investment haven in a world witnessing increasing economic and political complexities. Wise investors will closely monitor monetary and geopolitical developments to make informed investment decisions.