12.26 Trading Opportunity Scan: Technical Insights on AUD, EUR, NZD, and Crude Oil

The major markets are closed during the Christmas holiday. After the Federal Reserve completed three rate cuts this year, it has entered a wait-and-see period, closely monitoring the labor market and inflation trends. Currently, the Fed faces risks of rising unemployment rates, and non-farm payroll data may be overstated, with actual employment growth possibly turning negative. US banks expect the Fed to cut rates once in June and once in July, and forecast the 10-year US Treasury yield to fall back to the 4%-4.25% range by the end of the year, with room for further decline. The rate cut expectations in the short term are beneficial for a rebound in US stocks and other risk assets.

AUD/USD: A Key Moment for Consolidation and Breakout

AUD/USD rose 0.02 during Friday’s trading, reaching a high of 0.6718. Currently, the Australian dollar is building momentum around the 0.6700 level. Although the medium-term upward trend shows no signs of reversing, short-term consolidation risks should be watched.

If the AUD falls below the 0.6700 support, there is a possibility of retreating to 0.6620. Once the AUD can establish effective support at 0.6620, the medium-term upward pattern may continue. To the upside, AUD/USD needs to break through the resistance zone of 0.6750-0.6800 to confirm a new rally.

AUD/USD Technical Key Levels:

• Support: 0.6700, 0.6620, 0.6520
• Resistance: 0.6750, 0.6800, 0.6900

EUR/USD: 1.1700 Becomes a Key Divide Between Bulls and Bears

EUR/USD gained 0.04 on Friday, reaching a high of 1.1793 but still being capped below 1.1800. Currently, 1.1700 is the short-term battleground for bulls and bears, with the overall upward trend still intact.

Whether EUR/USD can hold above 1.1700 is crucial for future direction. If it remains above this level, it may challenge the 1.1900 and even the 1.2000 round numbers. Conversely, a break below 1.1700 would raise caution for a test of 1.1630.

EUR/USD Key Support and Resistance:

• Support: 1.1700, 1.1630, 1.1500
• Resistance: 1.1800, 1.1900, 1.2000

NZD/USD: Gann Line Repeatedly Tested

NZD/USD rose 0.05 on Friday, reaching a high of 0.5841. The New Zealand dollar has broken through the Gann 2/1 line at 0.5770, but upward momentum has weakened significantly, indicating potential resistance to further gains in the short term. The NZD may retrace to test the Gann 2/1 line for support.

If the NZD rebounds and is blocked at 0.5850, the probability of a pullback to test 0.5770 increases. As long as the NZD can hold above 0.5770, the medium-term uptrend remains hopeful. Watch for resistance at 0.5900.

NZD/USD Technical Support and Resistance:

• Support: 0.5800, 0.5770, 0.5730
• Resistance: 0.5850, 0.5900, 0.6000

WTI Crude Oil: Early Signs of Rebound Correction

WTI crude oil rose 0.09% on Friday, reaching $58.6. The AO indicator shows increasing upward momentum, which may signal a correction opportunity after the downtrend since June.

If WTI can break through and stabilize above $59.0, further rebounds toward $61.5 and even $64.5 become possible. However, if the price falls below $57.0, there is a risk of further decline.

WTI Crude Oil Key Levels:

• Support: 57.0, 55.0, 52.0
• Resistance: 59.0, 61.5, 64.5