#比特币2026价格预测 Waiting for a turning point: Can Bitcoin return to $100,000 in 2026? Institutional forecasts and market signals fully analyzed

At the start of a new year, a core question facing everyone is: after the adjustment, does Bitcoin still have hope of returning above $100,000?
Current technical charts indeed carry a cautious tone. The weekly trend once raised concerns that the bear market was already settled. However, the most fascinating aspect of the market is that it always brews unexpected turns while most people's opinions are aligned. Observing recent market movements, Bitcoin has not chosen a direction after stopping its decline but has entered a sustained range-bound oscillation. This can be interpreted as a continuation of the decline, accumulating momentum for a new downward move; but from another perspective, the repeated appearance of candlesticks with upper and lower shadows clearly reveals a tense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A noteworthy detail is that the selling pressure from bears has shifted from initial volume surges to volume contraction and testing, while the buying support has not significantly strengthened but also has not continued to weaken. This resembles the calm before a storm, with both sides waiting for an opportunity to break the deadlock.
Institutional Crossroads: Consensus Amid Divergence
Regarding the outlook for 2026, even top financial institutions have provided markedly different forecasts. This alone illustrates the complexity of the market and the challenges faced by traditional frameworks. Optimists still have a broad vision.
Represented by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, bullish analysts still expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2026. Their core logic is that even if global institutions allocate only 1%-5% of their assets, the resulting capital would be enough to push the price to this level. J.P. Morgan analysts also proposed a near $170,000 theoretical fair value, while Citigroup provided a baseline forecast of $143,000 in the next 12 months. The common foundation of these views is sustained institutional investment, revival of spot ETF demand, and a possible shift towards a loose monetary environment globally.
Meanwhile, cautious or even pessimistic voices are also worth listening to. Some analysts point out that the recent surge in digital asset treasury (DAT) purchases that drove the previous rally may have already peaked. Analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that institutional demand is slowing, and market risk appetite is declining, which could bring Bitcoin prices back to the $70,000 or even $56,000 range for consolidation.
A more severe warning comes from veteran trader Peter Brandt, who believes that an 80% retracement from the all-time high could test the $25,000 support level. Technical analysis authority Martin J. Pring also pointed out that multiple long-term indicators are signaling bearishness, and the gain or loss of key trendlines will determine the market’s ultimate direction.
An interesting observation is that the traditional “four-year halving cycle” theory is increasingly being questioned. More voices believe that as institutions enter the market through compliant channels like ETFs, the fundamental market structure of Bitcoin has undergone a profound change. Its price-driving logic is shifting from cyclical speculation dominated by retail sentiment to a “slow bull” pattern driven by macroeconomic factors and asset allocation needs. This means that the sharp and regular bull-bear transitions of the past may be elongated and smoothed into more gradual fluctuations.
Key Breakthrough Signals: What Is the Market Waiting For?
Amid the myriad forecasts, practical traders focus more on specific market signals. Currently, several key points are widely watched:
Will the “Christmas Bear Trap” repeat?
Some analysts suggest that the year-end decline could be a typical “bear trap,” where the price temporarily breaks below key support levels, triggering stop-loss selling, only to quickly reverse upward. Historical data shows that similar reversal patterns have appeared at the beginning of the past four years. Breakout direction of technical formations. On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price is converging within a symmetrical triangle. If the price can break strongly above the triangle’s upper boundary (for example, effectively surpassing $90,000), it could trigger a technical rally toward $107,000. Conversely, a breakdown below the lower support line could deepen the correction.
Real capital movements. The fund flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly eased from large net outflows at the end of 2025 and are now “approaching zero.” This is similar to the pattern before the market stabilized in April 2024. Meanwhile, the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) has shown signs of cooling, indicating that the most steadfast coin holders are beginning to become more reluctant to sell.
Macro sentiment pendulum. Currently, the market’s “Fear and Greed Index” is in the “Extreme Fear” zone. From a contrarian investment perspective, when market sentiment hits rock bottom, it often signals the beginning of medium- to long-term opportunities.
In 2026, Bitcoin may struggle to replicate the previous frenzy of one-sided surges and instead exhibit high-level volatility and complex divergence. For every market participant, this means higher patience and stronger discipline. There’s no need to regret missing past rallies; the market always rewards the calm survivor. The primary goal of investing is not to catch every fluctuation but to be present and well-capitalized when the market truly turns bullish. What’s most needed now is to manage positions well, protect capital, and patiently observe. Watch the key price levels, monitor macro policy trends, and observe shifts in market sentiment. Markets always sprout from despair and advance amid hesitation.