Early 2026 Market Outlook: The "Santa Claus Rally" Fails After Expiry, Key Week Sets the Tone for the Year, the Market's High Expectations for the "Santa Claus Rally" Have Confirmed Its Disappointment. Reviewing Recent Market Performance, Core Assets Exhibit Significant Volatility: Gold Prices Fluctuate Up and Down, Ultimately Returning to Flat; US Stocks Show a Choppy Tug-of-War Pattern with Alternating Gains and Losses, The Previously Leading "Seven Sisters of US Stocks" Suddenly Rebound and Then Rapidly Retreat, Ultimately Underperforming the Market; Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yields Rise Simultaneously, with the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Touching a Critical Level of 4.19%. Traditionally, the "Santa Claus Rally" refers to a seasonal boost typically occurring during the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January. The failure of this rally undoubtedly adds more uncertainty to the market start in 2026. Institutional Divergence Hides Core Logic, Multiple Main Lines Battle for 2026 Trends Regarding the market outlook for 2026, while mainstream institutions hold differing views, a clear core logic underpins them: Morgan Stanley's 2026 strategy report explicitly adopts an aggressive bullish stance on US stocks, targeting 7,800 points, with the core support logic being the tax relief dividends from the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful Act"; Bank of America (BofA) dismisses the "AI bubble theory," believing that the productivity leap driven by artificial intelligence will be the only "lifeline" for the market in 2026; additionally, some market opinions suggest that as administrative measures like the US cross-border remittance tax (1%) continue to intensify, the value of decentralized liquidity will receive genuine valuation premiums. Key Trading Week Approaching, Setting the Tone for the US Stock Market's Yearly Pattern The focus is on the upcoming week, which will mark the first full trading week of 2026 for US stocks. The market performance during this critical week will directly determine the core trend of US stocks in 2026—whether it will usher in a "golden pit" with good deployment opportunities or reach a "golden top" stage. #加密行情预测