It's been a long time since I sat in front of the computer and typed. As per my usual routine and ritual, I still want to write something.

If you can see these words at this moment, I believe you still can't leave this circle, whether it's out of genuine passion or lingering dissatisfaction. In 2025, the ones hurt the most will be the old leeks in the crypto world—it's hard to put into words, but let's just leave it at that.
While scrolling through my phone, I listen to Luo Zhenyu's New Year’s speech for the Year of the Friend in 2026. This habit has been around for about seven or eight years, but this year feels especially strange. First, very few people are watching; second, the comments are full of sarcasm and irony. It seems everyone is not so satisfied or happy. Ordinary people's lives are getting harder, channels for voicing opinions are narrowing, and the cognitive split and ideological iteration within circles sometimes make it feel like even breathing is wrong.
Watching Luo always speaking earnestly but nonsense, I feel myself drifting further away from this circle. Perhaps it's due to the industry I work in facing profit difficulties this year. I always feel his topics are quite illusory—AI, future healthcare, big health industry—full of happiness and positive energy, making it seem like ordinary folks can easily dive into this industry, or that AI will make medical treatment free in the future.
Ordinary people are not qualified to get sick. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, my entire family has supported over 30,000 yuan in medical GDP, and this is based on insurance and commercial insurance expenses. I personally am very resistant to going to the hospital. Every time I leave the inpatient department, I unconsciously marvel at the unreal world. At our age, most small business owners no longer compete over cars, houses, women, or children. It’s as if everyone suddenly awakens—quitting smoking and drinking, going to bed early, waking up early, exercising diligently. Only with genuine health can more meaning be found in life.
Luo looks noticeably thinner, which I envy very much. Wealthy people cherish their lives, and it’s obvious he’s made an effort to adjust himself. I should learn from this. In 2025, I gained 8 kilograms, with a big head and ears. Though I look blessed, only I know the internal weakness.
Reflecting on 2025, my career is not doing well. Overall, it’s still in a state of contraction and regression. Although I predicted this at the beginning of the year, I didn’t expect it to be so difficult. When the takeout wave swept in, I finally closed one store in the fourth quarter, and the new model planning also stopped. As for 2026, I have no particular outlook for now. Our personnel reserve is somewhat thin; we choose to rest and recuperate, taking one step at a time, focusing on our own small territory. For physical investments, we still need to be clear and cautious.
Regarding investments, my wife said the fund lost money. I dare not ask exactly how much, but I can guess. I only have the crypto track. The bull market started in November 2022, and the temporary peak was on October 6, 2025. Looking at the total position since the start of the bull market, there are profits, but if calculated based on the account balance on January 1, 2025, it’s definitely a loss.
The overall market trend in 2025 showed a pattern of decline-rise-decline. BTC was a disaster among many investment targets. ETH also couldn’t carry the crypto banner. Many new and old mainstream altcoins got lost amid news and quant machines, ultimately entering winter under the control of new scythes.
The biggest lesson from this cycle is that after the rise of AI concepts, the judgment of the capital volume seized by the seven giants in the US stock market was insufficient. Wall Street and large companies only chase BTC, but don’t speculate on mainstream altcoins, which is overly optimistic. Even more wrong was blindly believing politicians’ lies.
Looking back at 2025, if you miss the exit point at the summer or mid-autumn highs, it’s very hard to come out unscathed. Perhaps this is the so-called pain point of value investing. In this increasingly bizarre and risky investment market, how can one grasp the big trend without becoming a sacrifice on the battlefield?
Reviewing two rounds of crypto investment history, if you want to profit under FOMO, just a little greed usually results in losses. Only value investing is the only way out—rationality. I find it hard to imagine what my outcome would be if I hadn’t heavily invested in BTC, ETH, and ADA this round, or if I had gone all-in on altcoins like in previous cycles. If I hadn’t sold 30% of my holdings and BNB, I’d still be fully in the game now. What would my outcome be?
Not fully exiting 100% and not giving up easily, but psychologically I would be extremely anxious. So, from this perspective, looking at my current account profit and position distribution, I can only say I was qualified in 2025 but not excellent. As I said in my second live broadcast in November, if I were truly excellent, I would have decisively exited after 1011, at least keeping 50% of my cash position.
But I didn’t do that, so now I need to be responsible for my account and pay a certain interest cost for crossing the New Year. I saw a comment from a friend saying I didn’t lead everyone to escape the top, and I lost quite a bit. Honestly, when I saw that comment, I was a bit upset. After all, what I wanted to express and suggest isn’t necessarily correct. In the past few years of analyzing and thinking about trading, I often remind myself that these are just my personal opinions—I’m not a teacher or a guru. My advice is for reference only; you need to consider your own situation carefully.
Maybe this is a new friend. I don’t know his specific situation, and it’s his first time commenting. A few days ago, I shared this with a friend, and she said I should feel fortunate—after all, I haven’t seen many people complain, and there are fans and loyal followers waiting there. If you really care, keep writing, make yourself more rational, more professional, and help more people.
Haha, I felt a very strong power, a sudden enlightenment. But to be honest, I do have some long-term mainstream altcoins I’m quite optimistic about, and I’ve recommended them several times in comments and updates, including ETH, ADA, LINK, ONDO, AAVE, etc. Yesterday, I spent three hours reviewing comments, updates, and live content. If you bought these coins, even though our entry prices and position sizes differ, I believe the maximum loss at any stage should not exceed 50%. But if you’re currently experiencing losses, I hope you can forgive my advice. I will be more cautious in the future—no blind coin recommendations, no hasty opinions. Please also prepare to enter or exit based on your own situation.
The friend who guided me finally asked a very realistic question: Do you still believe in the crypto market in 2026? To be honest, I still do. It’s hard to sort out all the views in a short time, but the future looks good, though the process will be very tough. As I wrote in my subscription update before, I won’t deceive myself because I know which coins I hold, at what number I can make a profit, which funds can stay long-term, and which should be cut in time. So I still look forward to the market in the first quarter of 2026. I know I can’t defy the heavens and change my fate in crypto, but if I operate cautiously, the return on capital should be slightly higher than that of restaurant or physical business.
Sometimes, this calmness and awareness come from watching my daughter’s long-term account—this is the account preparing her for college. I understand why I chose this allocation and can have long-term expectations and patience for this fund.
Time is almost up. I need to publish this article before 12 o’clock. Borrowing a phrase I saw on Xiaohongshu to end my 2025 summary: The road is still long, through wind and rain, we stand together, watching each other. Let’s encourage each other.
Your choices in previous years have led to your current predicament. Your choices now will shape your future life.
If you don’t prepare in advance, the days ahead will be very bleak. If a person’s vision is always far-reaching, whether in life or investment, they will ultimately be the winner.
In life, he will cherish every income. In investment, he prefers long-term strategies, betting on future growth when quality assets fall to lows. While you worry about short-term fluctuations over a few days, others are already planning for the next few years.
Without the right mindset, the results will be very different. I sincerely wish friends who follow and watch this update in 2026 to stay calm, face it optimistically, stay healthy, and prosper financially☕☕☕