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Happy New Year everyone! BTC has been maintaining slight fluctuations. From a macro and political perspective, there haven't been any strong negative news recently. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is still waiting for new data; politically, Trump is still working to ensure the smooth implementation of tariffs. The most concerning issue might be the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which currently shows no signs of ceasefire. However, a more optimistic view is that the US economy might be better than expected. Although the labor market is declining and investor sentiment is not very optimistic, based on GDP growth rate, the US still has a long way to go before entering recession. If the Federal Reserve can intervene earlier, a soft landing for the US economy is still possible. This also makes the Federal Reserve's monetary policy a very important focus for 2024. Throughout 2025, the market will almost be influenced by Trump and the Fed, and 2026 will still be a year of game-playing between Trump and the Fed. However, with Powell's term ending in 2026, it might be Trump's best opportunity. For risk markets, this year will be one of both opportunities and crises.

BTC
Currently, the weekly level indicates risk, but the daily level presents opportunities. Therefore, the key focus now is on the daily level. After a sideways movement to the right, whether it can drive a recovery on the weekly level remains to be seen. At present, there is no clear direction, but I still maintain the view that as long as 86,000 does not break, there is still a chance to go higher. Meanwhile, pay attention to whether the price can stabilize at 89,000 to 90,000 on the daily level. In summary, the price is oscillating within a small range. A trend reversal, whether up or down, will likely involve significant volatility. Therefore, both long and short positions should set proper stop-loss levels, with support at 86,000-85,500 and resistance at 89,100-91,000.

ETH
Ethereum is currently waiting for Bitcoin's direction. The situation is similar. However, Ethereum is in an upward oscillation. If Bitcoin does not go higher, Ethereum will also find it difficult to perform well. In the short term, focus on the 2,900 level—if it does not break, there is a chance; if it breaks, it may continue downward toward 2,800. Be patient and wait for Bitcoin's direction. Support levels are at 2,900-2,830, and resistance levels are at 3,012-3,120.