Monday Brings Wheat Market Divergence as Prices Pull Back

PositionPhobia · 2025-12-31T15:14:51+00:00

Wheat futures showed mixed results, with spring wheat steady while winter contracts fell. Exports dropped 52.47% compared to the previous week, despite a significant year-over-year increase. Geopolitical tensions influenced market sentiment.

PositionPhobia

2025-12-31 15:14:51

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Wheat futures markets displayed a split personality during Monday’s session, with spring wheat maintaining composure while winter wheat contracts retreated. The Chicago SRW complex declined 5 to 6 cents, while Kansas City HRW futures fell 5 to 7 cents by day’s end. Minneapolis spring wheat bucked the trend, with contracts trading steady to a penny higher, demonstrating relative resilience amid broader softness.

Export Data Tells a Different Story

The USDA released its weekly export snapshot, revealing 302,096 MT (11.1 mbu) of wheat shipments for the week that ended December 25. This represented a sharp 52.47% drop compared to the previous week and fell 11.12% below the corresponding week in 2024. Bangladesh emerged as the leading buyer, receiving 115,946 MT, followed by Thailand at 68,589 MT and the Dominican Republic claiming 44,311 MT.

On a broader timeline, the 2025/26 marketing year export tally stands at an impressive 15.06 MMT (553.5 mbu) since June 1—a substantial 22.02% increase relative to the same period last year. This year-over-year growth underscores persistent international demand despite Monday’s price weakness.

Geopolitical Backdrop Influences Market Sentiment

Over the weekend, discussions between President Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelensky regarding peace negotiations with Russia added a layer of uncertainty to commodity markets. Trump indicated that an agreement was within reach, though key disputes remained unresolved. Such developments can influence sentiment in agricultural futures, particularly wheat, given supply chain implications tied to major producing regions.

Session Closings Across Wheat Futures

March 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.13, down 6 cents. May 26 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.24 3/4, also down 6 cents. March 26 KCBT Wheat finished at $5.27 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents, while May 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.40 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents. Minneapolis contracts showed more stability, with March 26 MIAX Wheat unchanged at $5.79 1/4 and May 26 MIAX Wheat ending at $5.90 3/4, up 1/4 cent.

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