December 31, 2025

At 11.21, after surpassing 80,600, a warning of bottoming out; on 12.11, after surpassing 94,600, the first peak has appeared. Since these two wave markets of ten thousand points, the market has been oscillating for nearly three weeks, wearing everyone out.

When feeling confused, the best thing to do is to hold on longer than others. The BTC market is entering a countdown phase. Here's the suggested approach:

Being trapped or missing out is a single-choice question; to achieve better cost efficiency, you must accept the risk of missing out. If you are worried about missing the rally, getting in early means accepting the possibility of being trapped and wider stop-losses. This is a difficult balance to achieve.

Both the red and blue routes shown in the chart are bullish, with the only difference being whether there will be a retracement down to around 84,000-84,700. Friends, please consider your actual situation:

1. For those who bought the bottom on 11.21, you can continue to hold. After breaking through 94,600, observe whether BTC stops at 97,000-98,000. If it does, reduce your position. With the remaining position, move the stop-loss upward and see if you can hold until 101,300-103,000. Based on this, if there is a pullback in the next few days and stops occur at 86,000 and 84,600, you can add some positions.

2. For friends holding positions bought on 12.19 at 84,500-85,000, follow the same handling plan as above. If an opportunity around 84,600 arises, you can add to your position.

3. For friends with no positions, it’s quite confusing now. Buying in again risks a large retracement; having no position and missing out on a big rally is also worrying. Here's my thought process for your reference.

My expectation is that the upward trend starting from 80,600 has not ended yet. The timeline will extend until the week of January 12, 2026, with the price at least above 94,600. Reasonable target levels are 97,000-98,000 and 101,300-103,000. But to enjoy this big rally, you need to decide where to place your stop-loss. If you are starting from a smaller timeframe, set the stop-loss around 86,300; if hit, look for another entry opportunity. For larger timeframes, the stop-loss is only valid below 80,600.

Profit-loss ratio, certainty, position management, and risk control are interconnected. Everyone’s understanding differs, and so does their operation. I can only provide ideas; specific actions depend on each individual. #BTC行情分析 $BTC