As of 2025-12-31 09:30, Ethereum is priced at $2,972, with a daily increase of +0.5%, 24-hour volatility around 3.0%, and a market sentiment index of 29 (fear). Liquidity is light towards the end of the year, with short-term fluctuations mainly between $2,900 and $3,000, making a single-sided breakout unlikely.

1. Core Market and Sentiment

• Price: $3,000-$3,050 is a strong resistance, $2,870-$2,900 is a key support. Multiple attempts to break above $3,000 have failed.

• Volume: 24h trading volume has shrunk by about 35%. Low liquidity easily triggers rapid fluctuations, making it difficult to form effective trends.

• Sentiment: Fear and greed index at 29 (fear). Short-term holders show selling pressure, institutional ETF funds are cautious.

• Funds: Spot ETF net outflows in Q4 amount to approximately $530 million. On-chain support exists around $2,900. Layer2 ecosystem funds are flowing in but have not driven ETH mainnet buying.

• Technicals: Daily chart shows a bearish arrangement, RSI at 45-48 (neutral), MACD shows weak bullish momentum, no clear breakout signals.

2. Core Drivers and Risks

• Drivers: ① Federal Reserve rate cut expectations (about 65% chance of rate cuts in Jan-Mar); ② Rebound of spot ETF funds; ③ Progress in US crypto regulation bills; ④ Expansion of Layer2 ecosystem and steady growth in staking volume.

• Risks: ① Regulatory tightening; ② Liquidity gaps; ③ Leverage liquidations; ④ Strong correlation with Bitcoin, a weak BTC will directly drag ETH down.

3. Short-term and Mid-term Outlook

• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Fluctuations between $2,900 and $3,000. If it stabilizes above $3,050 with increased volume, it could rise to $3,100-$3,150. Falling below $2,870 tests support at $2,800-$2,850.

• Mid-term (1-3 months): If ETF funds rebound and regulation is implemented, expect a test of $3,200-$3,300. If rate cuts are less than expected or regulation tightens, it may drop to $2,700-$2,750.

4. Trading and Risk Management Recommendations

• Short-term: Buy low and sell high within the $2,900-$3,000 range, with 3%-5% stop-loss, avoid chasing highs.

• Mid-term: Build positions gradually; reduce holdings if below $2,850; add positions again if above $3,050 with volume.

• Long-term: Keep position size within 10% of total assets; deploy during deep corrections; ignore short-term volatility.

Would you like me to prepare a key observation checklist for ETH over the next 1-2 weeks (key price levels, ETF funds, Federal Reserve signals, regulation updates, Layer2 data), so you can monitor daily trends? $ETH