2025-12-25 11:22:49

Looking back at the last bull market, the underlying logic is actually very clear—pandemic + unlimited QE. During that period, global central banks were really ramping up money printing, liquidity was everywhere, and retail investors had nowhere to put their money but into crypto.

The performance of altcoins says it all. The 2021 wave was basically a nationwide celebration, with even crappy projects soaring 10x. By March 2024, the momentum had obviously weakened. And now? It’s even more of a semi-dead state.

The underlying reason is actually very painful: liquidity has truly tightened, retail investors have been educated, and institutional investors are no longer easily fooled. You’ll find that current funds are increasingly concentrated in just a few top coins like BTC and ETH, while altcoins have long become a battlefield for existing holdings.

Looking ahead, with each bull market, the performance of altcoins will only get worse. Capital centralization is the trend, and the final fate of 99% of altcoins is to go to zero. This is not pessimism; it’s the inevitable logic of a mature market.

BTC0.9%

ETH0.48%

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BearMarketMonk

· 12m ago

The wave in 2021 really made me a lot of money. Now it feels like a dream. Honestly, anyone still trying to empower copycats now is just gambling. BTC is the right path; others are just practice partners. This bull market is coming, I only watch the top coins. Shitcoins really should be cleared out; there are too many trash projects. Retail investors have been educated enough; they wake up pretty quickly actually. I agree with the saying that 99% will go to zero; there's no need for pity. Those still chasing shitcoins now will probably regret it ten years later. When liquidity tightens, true colors are revealed—that's the market.

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Layer2Observer

· 6h ago

The judgment that liquidity tightening is indeed valid. Let's look at the data support—M2 growth rate in 2021 versus the current interest rate environment, the curve has completely reversed. An interesting finding is that institutions are now really buying BTC and ETH; on-chain activity data for altcoins has long indicated the issue, no need to wait until they drop to zero. There's a misconception here: it's not that 99% of altcoins are destined to zero, but rather that after liquidity dries up, no one is willing to take over. The concept of stock game is a false notion. Technically speaking, I agree with your point, but tightening the logic a bit more would be more convincing. I also witnessed that wave in 2021. The underlying reason for the surge in bad projects was zero interest rates + FOMO double whammy. Now the environment is completely reversed. From an engineering perspective, the market pricing mechanism is self-correcting, which is a healthy signal, not pessimistic. Retail investors haven't fully absorbed this lesson yet. The people I know are still sleepwalking into altcoin chasing. Considering macro and on-chain data comprehensively, your conclusion is basically reliable, but it’s not correct to generalize all altcoins. One thing to clarify: the collective decline of altcoins is more of a relative concept—compared to BTC's gains, they are indeed weaker, but not all zero. Data-driven analysis frameworks are worth referencing.

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BoredApeResistance

· 6h ago

Oh no, that wave in 2021 really got cut. Looking at altcoins now is just a nightmare. Exactly, retail investors have learned to be smart. Who would still buy into trash coins? When liquidity tightens, the true nature is revealed... BTC and ETH are the ultimate winners. The 99% zeroing out judgment is a bit harsh, but the overall trend is correct. The key is that after institutions entered, small retail investors' advantages are completely gone. People are still playing with copycats... I really can't understand the logic. Funds are flowing into top projects, this is what a mature market should look like.

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SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 6h ago

2021 was really the time of foolish money, now that we're sober, the real beginning has just started It's a hard truth, retail investors have already been thoroughly taught their lesson No one is buying into altcoins this time; everyone is just holding onto BTC and letting it gather dust I believe the 99% zeroing out figure; anyway, my small coins have long been a joke The current mindset of buying altcoins is just like gambling, wake up everyone When liquidity tightens, everything will be exposed; this time, there's really no money printing to save the market

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