Recently, MERL's upward momentum has attracted a lot of attention. The market charts are indeed moving, and its ranking is climbing, making the market sentiment seem to heat up suddenly. However, I must be honest—this wave of gains, in my view, is not a sign of a trend reversal; it's just a typical weak rebound. My stance is very clear—continue to be bearish and stick to a core strategy of shorting.

Analyzing from the chart structure, this rally looks more like exaggerated volatility caused by low liquidity. The price briefly surged to 0.44 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 17%, and its market cap even broke into the top 100 on CoinMarketCap, appearing quite formidable. But if you look closely at the order book depth, there has been no real improvement. What does this indicate? It shows that a small amount of capital can manipulate the price, creating a false volume surge and a misleading sense of market optimism. Essentially, this is setting the stage for distribution, a classic trap to lure in buyers.

The technical indicators further confirm the situation. The price repeatedly hits resistance in the 0.44 to 0.45 USDT range, quickly falling back to 0.436 USDT after a brief rally, indicating that selling pressure above remains fierce. The KDJ indicator has entered overbought territory, and the negative MACD histogram continues to expand, all signaling that no substantial trend change has occurred. The bearish structure remains intact and unbroken.

On the trading front, I choose to follow the trend and short, avoiding chasing the highs. The core strategy is to look for shorting opportunities within the 0.44 to 0.45 USDT range, with a stop-loss set at 0.46 USDT. The first target is around 0.38 USDT. If the price effectively breaks below 0.4 USDT later, it can be considered a continuation of the trend, allowing for additional short positions, with the stop-loss moved to 0.42 USDT. The target zone is set between 0.32 and 0.35 USDT.

Overall, before reaching 0.5 USDT, my bearish outlook on MERL will not change. Those rebounds are mostly just emotional corrections and do not alter the underlying bearish trend. The smartest move at this stage is to manage risk carefully and follow the trend to short, rather than betting on a bottom reversal.