#预测市场 Seeing the recent movements in the prediction market, I need to calmly say a few words. Big platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase forming compliance alliances, with a market valuation of $28 billion, sound very tempting, but this is precisely the time when pitfalls are easy to fall into.

I've seen too many people dazzled by "new tracks." Prediction markets are essentially probability games. They seem to be 30% more accurate than traditional polls, but how is this data obtained? Who is collecting it? This is often the time to be extra cautious. Moreover, over 70% of Americans agree that "it's not gambling"—what does this kind of public opinion hype indicate? It clearly shows the need for legitimacy endorsement.

The most dangerous aspect is the mindset of early users. Phantom Wallet launching prediction markets, Coinbase planning tokenized stocks—new concepts flooding the market—retail investors are most prone to impulsive decisions at this stage. I’ve been there myself before. And what was the result? The nightmare of catching the top.

If you want to survive long-term, remember these points: First, don’t be fooled by the "compliance alliance"; compliance only reduces risk, it doesn’t eliminate it. Second, the high initial traffic of such products often comes with high risk. Third, clarify whether you are investing or gambling—don’t fool yourself.

Observe calmly for a few months, wait until the market truly stabilizes before considering entry.