These days, many people are being carried along by $MERL 's upward momentum. It looks like the price is moving, the rankings are rising, and the market suddenly seems to be strengthening. However, my judgment is that this wave is not a trend reversal but a standard weak rebound. I remain firmly bearish and maintain a primarily short-selling approach.

Structurally, this rally resembles a volatility deliberately amplified in a low-liquidity environment. The price temporarily surged to 0.44 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 17%, pushing the market cap into the top 100 on CoinMarketCap. However, the trading depth has not improved accordingly; a small amount of capital can push the price higher, creating an illusion of volume increase and sentiment warming. Essentially, this is setting the stage for subsequent distribution. This kind of movement is more consistent with a trap for the bullish crowd rather than fresh capital re-entering to buy.

From a technical perspective, the bearish outlook is also supported. The price repeatedly encounters resistance in the 0.44 to 0.45 USDT range, quickly falling back to 0.436 USDT after a spike, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant. The KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone, and the MACD negative histogram continues to expand. The trend has not undergone any substantial change; the bearish structure remains intact. As long as these signals are not broken, I will not consider this rebound as a trend reversal.

In terms of trading strategy, I clearly prefer to follow the trend and short rather than chase the highs. The core idea is to look for short opportunities in the 0.44 to 0.45 USDT range, with a stop loss at 0.46 USDT, and the first target at 0.38 USDT. If the price effectively breaks below 0.4 USDT later, it will be regarded as a continuation of the trend, allowing for additional positions to be added, with a stop loss at 0.42 USDT, and a target range of 0.32 to 0.35 USDT.

Overall, it is very clear that before reaching 0.5 USDT, I maintain a definite bearish stance on $MERL . All rebounds seem more like emotional recovery rather than a fundamental structural change.

At this stage, controlling risk and following the trend to short is far more rational than betting on a reversal.