Recently, I reviewed on-chain data and found several signals strong enough to move the market. Let's go through them one by one.

The long position holding 580,000 ETH has finally surfaced, and it is confirmed to be a research team under a major asset management institution. They borrowed nearly 900 million USDT in a large lending protocol to add to their position, with an average price around $3,208. Another whale with a billion-dollar level is playing more aggressively — opening a 5x leveraged long position with 200,000 ETH and simultaneously dumping 100,000 ETH in spot into exchanges. These two entities are controlling a combined leveraged position of 800,000 ETH, with liquidation prices locked between $1,500 and $2,000. This line is the trigger point for the entire market, and it must be closely monitored.

There are significant disagreements within the institutional camp. On one hand, a major listed company has publicly sold 2,000 BTC, and major spot ETFs are continuously outflows; on the other hand, a Japanese listed company has announced plans to accumulate 210,000 BTC, and a mining company has spent $300 million in a week to buy ETH, aiming for 5% of the total circulating supply. Big players are engaged in constant disputes, indicating the market is undergoing intense reshuffling and restructuring.

Two major pieces of news have come from the project side. A leading trading partner protocol proposes to burn 37.11 million governance tokens, with a market value close to $1 billion, reducing circulating supply by 13.7% in one go, fully activating the deflationary logic. In the Solana ecosystem, a staking liquidity project plans to distribute 100% of all protocol revenue to validators, and a DEX aggregator is also preparing to launch lending services. The ecosystem is busy with developments.

The overall DeFi leverage ratio has already dropped by 70%, and the market bubble has been mostly squeezed out. According to historical patterns, when leverage is exhausted, the bottom is not far away.