#美联储降息政策 The rate cut expectation has almost been fully priced in, which is now the market consensus. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has steadily risen over the past two weeks after pulling back from its October peak to $80,000. The 200-day moving average slope has turned positive for the first time in a month, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has indeed recovered. The dual confirmation of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggests that the trend framework is intact.

But here’s a harsh reality — the Federal Reserve actually cut interest rates, Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher, yet Bitcoin instead declined during Asian trading hours, still unable to break through $94,000. Even with a net ETF inflow of $224 million, it couldn’t suppress the downward pressure, indicating that structural selling forces are stronger than expected demand. The key support levels at $88,500 and $85,000, once broken, would require rewriting the story of a rebound.

From a follow-trade perspective, it’s time to examine how the traders you follow are responding. Some have already reduced their positions at high levels to avoid risk, while others are still holding on stubbornly; the profit curve will tell the story. The moment macro expectations like rate cuts come true is often the toughest test of execution — have you cut losses decisively when needed? Have you added positions when emotional biases didn’t cloud judgment?

Short-term recovery of bullish momentum does not equal a trend reversal; this balance must be carefully managed. My strategy is to continue observing the breakout of the 52-week high. If it stabilizes, I will consider increasing follow-trade allocations. Otherwise, caution remains the prerequisite for survival.