#预测市场 The approval of Gemini's DCM license is not just a sign of regulatory progress for a trading platform; it also signals that the old path of prediction markets is being reignited.

Back in 2020, Gemini submitted their application, but at that time, prediction markets were still a sensitive topic in the US. Over more than four years of waiting, the entire crypto ecosystem's understanding of compliance has deepened. Now that it’s approved, it to some extent indicates that both the market environment and regulatory attitudes have undergone substantial changes.

It reminds me of several key moments in history. Augur was popular around 2018, with the concept of prediction markets being highly hyped; later, it experienced a downturn, mainly due to liquidity and compliance issues. Gemini’s breakthrough this time can be seen as a redefinition of this track—no longer a decentralized utopian experiment, but a formal entrant operating within the CFTC framework.

Starting from binary event contracts, with plans to expand into futures, options, and perpetuals, this pathway is well-designed. They begin with the simplest "yes/no" questions, accumulating trading volume and data, then gradually increase complexity. This approach has been proven countless times in traditional finance.

The pre-market rise of 18% reflects the market’s genuine optimism about this "formalization" signal. But my experience tells me not to over-interpret short-term gains. The real test for prediction markets lies in whether they can truly build liquidity and a user base. Regulatory approval is just the entry ticket; the real challenge is in operations moving forward.

This round of attention to prediction markets is more cautious and pragmatic than a few years ago. That’s what I find truly interesting.